The angst continues. Needing a win in the last group stage game against Colombia to win the group and avoid an extremely tough-looking quarterfinal against Uruguay, Brazil were lucky to manage a 1-1 draw in a performance that was quite possibly worse than Fernando Diniz’s disasterclass against them last November. At least in that game Brazil got forward effectively, even as Colombia overran the nonexistent midfield and created plenty of shots of their own; this time, Colombia overran a far more present midfield that also couldn’t create anything going forward.
Now we face an equally high-flying Uruguay side that might pose a similar test just days after we failed the first one. And on top of that, Vini Jr. got his second yellow card of the tournament and will be suspended for this quarterfinal. Oh, and the ref is Argentinian. Oh dear!
Brazil vs. Uruguay
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, July 6, 2024
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EDT / 10:00 PM BRT / 1:00 AM GMT
US TV: FS1, Univision
Lineup info TBD
Rather than write another 4,000 words about how this game might go, I’m just going to focus on one question for this preview: how should Dorival Jr. replace Vini Jr.? Vini hasn’t had the best of tournaments—nobody in the front line has—but he’s still our top scorer and managed to draw a clear, uncalled penalty against Colombia that may well have made the difference (although the way Colombia were playing, I think they would have just kept the pressure up until they tied the game either way.) Replacing him may well be impossible, but it could well be a blessing in disguise. As I see it, there are three main ways Dorival could approach this:
First, he could simply keep the exact same strikerless approach, just without Vini. Obviously, this hasn’t worked very well so far with Rodrygo as the nominal false 9. Between his understandable tendency to drift out of the box and his lack of combativeness inside it, Brazil’s wide players essentially have never had anybody to aim at when trying to cross. Furthermore, Rodrygo hasn’t been able to effectively link plays or provide incisive passing or running when dropping deep. He’s been asked to be a poor man’s Neymar, but he’s only managed to be the sort of Neymar you might get in a debtor’s prison.
Who would replace Vini in this scenario? The obvious answer is Gabriel Martinelli, though for all I’ve talked ill about Rodrygo, one very appealing option would be to move him into Vini’s role on the left and put a different winger in as a false 9. Left wing is Rodrygo’s best position and he’s often thrived there when Vini has been unavailable for Real Madrid. I have to think he’d do a lot better there than through the middle. In that case, Martinelli might still be the best choice to bring into the team, as a tall-ish (okay, he only has an inch or so on Savinho and Raphinha and two on Rodrygo) target to aim at who has at least some pedigree scoring goals, if not this past season, and more proven ability to drive through the middle of the park with the ball than Raphinha or Savinho.
Second, Dorival could keep the same shape, but with a proper striker. We’ve all been a bit perplexed by the lack of playing time for Endrick in this tournament after he was so good in Dorival’s first three games in charge. Dorival has brought him on later and later in every game this month: the 61st minute against Mexico, the last time he scored; then minute 65 against the US, 71 vs. Costa Rica, 79 vs. Paraguay, and 86 vs. Colombia. That adds up to just 47 minutes, including stoppage time, during the Copa itself—truly perplexing when Brazil’s attack fizzled in two of those three games. (And given that Brazil were 4-1 up after 65 minutes in the other game, waiting until the 79th minute to bring Endrick on feels like a missed opportunity to get him more tournament experience in a more forgiving environment.)
Now Dorival may be forced to call upon Endrick despite that lack of game time. He might even want to consider Evanilson, who is taller and more of a target man, despite his not having played since the Mexico game. Either way, the idea would be simply to consistently have something to aim at, which the current system has been unable to provide.
Third, Dorival could bring in Endrick and totally change the team’s shape. This is something I don’t think would work with Evanilson, who isn’t nearly as quick or capable of playing in his teammates. But Endrick gives us the possibility of an approach that relies less on his ability as a singular target man, but rather as a quick and dynamic goalscorer who can combine with another quick and dynamic forward through the middle of the park. I imagine something like this:
You know me; I love my two up top and one in the hole. This formation would keep our forwards close together while allowing a more genuine playmaker, Andreas Pereira, to operate as a number 10. Andreas can add more effectively to the numbers in midfield than could Rodrygo, allowing us to pack that zone if need be. This also opens up the possibility of taking some bolder swings. This is a much narrower formation, especially with two fairly defensive fullbacks; the extra midfield cover makes it easier to slot in Yan Couto at right-back. Or we could ignore everything I’ve said about Rodrygo and play him in the hole and open up the spot alongside Endrick for one of our quick, skillful wingers like Martinelli or Savinho.
There are other problems with the team: the midfield has neither been able to contend with other teams’ nor supply our forwards on a consistent basis and the defense has been a mess. I think everybody here would love to see a Brazil coach try playing three at the back, for instance. (I think Raphinha would make a great left wingback.) As that is surely not on the cards for this game, I’ve kept my backseat management here a touch more modest.
Whatever Dorival does, I really hope it works. Marcelo Bielsa has Uruguay humming along pretty nicely, and beat Fernando Diniz’s mess of a Brazil side pretty handily in their last meeting. (That game was one of the most statistically grim you’ll ever lay eyes on. Look at this! Seven combined shots! Just one in the first half! But Brazil were nonetheless never really in contention after going behind.) It was a performance so bad, you have to think anything Dorival can pull out of his ass would be an improvement—and given Brazil’s generally good recent record against Uruguay, not to mention Marcelo Bielsa’s tendency to be so crazy it’s brilliant until things stop working and he just looks crazy, it could well be enough to pull us through. But Uruguay aren’t playing like Bielsa’s about to enter the “he’s just crazy” phase of his coaching lifecycle any time soon, and Dorival has missed more than he’s hit this month.
I don’t care so much about winning this Copa América, nice though it would be. But at a bare minimum, as I said previously, I want Brazil to make the semifinals. More than anything, this is about playing more games (making the semis would also guarantee us at least the third-place game) and giving Dorival more time to work. A semifinal rematch against Colombia would be a great test for Dorival and his powers of adaptation, having been so throughly outplayed by them in the group stage, and the value of a potential final against Argentina is obvious, even if we’d need to improve a lot against Colombia first. So I really, really hope we beat Uruguay tomorrow, but on the evidence of the last game, I’m not sure we will. I hate to say it, but I think we’re headed for a 1-0 loss that will have us asking still more questions about Dorival.
