Jalen Ramsey’s new Dolphins contract may have been a major miscalculation

In an NFL market that has top cornerbacks relatively underpaid in relation to their importance, Jalen Ramsey continues to break the bank. The three-year, $72.3 million extension Ramsey signed with the Miami Dolphins on Sept. 6 gives Ramsey an Average Annual Value (at least contract-wise) of $24.1 million per year, edging him just over Patrick Surtain II of the Denver Broncos, whose four-year, $86 million extension signed a few days earlier had him at $24 million per year even.

It’s the second time in Ramsey’s 10-year career that the fifth overall pick out of Florida State (by the Jacksonville Jaguars) in 2016 became the game’s richest cornerback, bookending the five-year, $100 million contract the Los Angeles Rams gave him in 2020.

“I wouldn’t say that I reset it again; I would say that ‘P2’ [Surtain] did his thing in resetting it the other day,” Ramsey said the day the deal was struck, when asked how it felt to reset the market once again. “And then I got to the mark where I guess they were working to get to so I could become the highest paid defensive back again. So it’s all a blessing, but I’m blessed regardless. Every day I wake up and got my beautiful kids and my family and all the support and all the love from my teammates and everything, I’m blessed regardless. I think it’s cool. It’s a cool accomplishment not only for me, but also for my support system. All the people who work with me, my agent of course, David Mulugheta and everything he’s been able to accomplish in just this year. It’s just a cool moment for everybody involved, I think.”

It was a cool moment at the time, but through the first two games of Ramsey’s 2024 season, the play on the field has been problematic. Before we get into the specifics, we must say that the hamstring injury Ramsey dealt with throughout the preseason may be an issue. But the metrics and tape should be cause for concern.

Through two games in the 2024 season, Ramsey has allowed two catches on two targets for 40 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 118.8. As we will see, those numbers could easily be much worse. He’s missed four tackles, and he has just two solo tackles. And the tape shows all kinds of examples showing Ramsey out of phase with the defense put on the field by new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver.

Perhaps the most notable deep completion Ramsey has allowed this season came in last Thursday night’s 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. With 7:11 left in the first half, the Bills had third-and-12 at the Miami 34-yard line, and running back Ty Johnson running a deep rail route up the right boundary. Ramsey was playing on his toes more than he was closing to the target, perhaps to avoid giving up the big play downfield, but that’s exactly what happened – a 33-yard gain that allowed the Bills up go up 17-7 on a 1-yard James Cook run one play later.

And in Week 1 against the Jaguars, Ramsey gave up a 40-yard pass from Trevor Lawrence to rookie receiver Brian Thomas, Jr. Ramsey got busted for pass interference on the play, which may have kept Thomas from getting into the end zone and taken the play off Ramsey’s stat sheet, but the tape shows that he was struggling a bit to stay in phase with a speed receiver. And Lawrence making Thomas slow down for the throw might have saved the Dolphins here.

The most amazing thing about both of these deep passes was that they both landed at Miami’s 1-yard line, which means that Ramsey was 2 total yards away from leading the league in touchdowns conceded on throws of 20 or more air yards. The penalty didn’t count as a completion allowed, but given the structure of the play, that’s what it was. Ramsey was betting on the penalty being a better option than the touchdown allowed.

The Dolphins obviously hope that all this has to do with the hamstring injury, and that all will be well over time. But when I went to Ramsey’s 2023 tape, there were too many examples of Ramsey allowing tight-window completions against good-to-great receivers, including Brandin Cooks of the Dallas Cowboys on this Week 16 8-yard touchdown in which Ramsey couldn’t quite close.

And against Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11, Ramsey was very fortunate that the opposing quarterback did whatever the heck he did on this throw, because Adams had Ramsey dead-to-rights on this nasty stutter-go.

So… maybe it isn’t the hamstring.

Ramsey’s best plays generally come when he’s able to use his football acumen and quarterback-reading ability to take the ball away. This happened twice against the same Raiders that had him in hell with that Davante Adams move, with two interceptions in the game. It’s the stuff above the neck that makes Ramsey a threat at this point in his career.

“Everybody knows – when everyone knows the name of someone that’s joining the team and that name is based upon a reputation of talent and skill, everyone is excited,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said of Ramsey the day the contract was signed. “You don’t know what you’re totally – you think you know, but you’re always excited to see how that person is going to fit in within the overall complexion of things. Since he’s been here, it’s almost felt mutually purposeful in that Jalen saw a different level of player and leader this team could benefit from, and so he seized that.”

There’s no denying any of that, nor should there be. This isn’t about Jalen Ramsey’s value to the Dolphins, per se – especially if we’re talking about intangibles. Those in the building would know far more about that. This is about whether the contract given is the right move, for now and into the future.

It’s clear that under the right circumstances, Jalen Ramsey can still be a high-quality NFL defender. His abilities in press coverage and as an overhang defender make him valuable. But valuable enough to set the market for his position for the second time in his career? Is he one of the two or three best cornerbacks in the NFL?

That’s a tougher sell, especially as Ramsey turns 30 on Oct. 24. That’s an age where a lot of cornerbacks either see their performances start to decline at their original positions, or the argument is settled to a point as they see themselves in more overhang and safety roles. Not everybody can be Darrell Green, Willie Brown, or Ken Riley.

If what we saw in the first two weeks of the 2024 season and over several stretches in 2023 are the truest indicators, the Dolphins might have priced themselves right out of reality.