WNBA: Will the Lynx or Sun meet the Liberty in the Finals?

The No. 1-seed New York Liberty are waiting. Will the No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx or No. 3-seed Connecticut Sun earn the right to challenge them in the 2024 WNBA Finals?

Game 5 of Lynx-Sun, the first decisive game of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs, tips off at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 8 at the Target Center in Minneapolis. What must the hometown Lynx do to return to the Finals for the first time since 2017? How can the Connecticut Sun extend the organization’s quest for a first championship?

How the Lynx will win

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

No one believes in Napheesa Collier more than Lynx fans.

The Minnesota faithful, however, would probably like to see a MV-Phee performance from her during this semifinal series. While she turned in a pair of outstanding efforts in Games 3 and 4 in Uncasville, her performances in Games 1 and 2 in Minneapolis were more muted. The full Collier experience will be required for Minnesota to prevail in Game 5.

Of course, she’ll also need help, which was lacking in Game 4. Courtney Williams, who was excellent in the Lynx’s two wins, was quieter in Game 4, with early foul trouble seeming to disrupt the rhythm of Minnesota’s best playmaker. Although the team shot a respectable 38.5 percent from 3, Bridget Carleton hoisted 11 triples, making only two, while Kayla McBride only got off two 3-pointers, making one. That resulted in 11 points combined from the pair of sharpshooters. That’s insufficient, as their 3-point shooting not only puts points on the board for Minnesota but also creates more spacing in the halfcourt, allowing the Lynx offense to hum at maximum capacity.

Defensively, the Lynx have to keep the Sun out of the paint, or at least make it more difficult for them to score inside. In Game 4, Connecticut scored 50 points in the paint. After Minnesota had assumed the physicality edge in Games 2 and 3, they lost it in Game 4, especially in the second half. Although Minnesota’s strength is their execution, that execution cannot come without aggression. If they can rediscover that combination, on both defense and offense, the Lynx will be back in the Finals, with a chance to become the first WNBA franchise to win five championships.

How the Sun will win

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

Somewhat surprisingly, offense, as much as defense, helped the Sun push this series to a fifth and final game.

Connecticut shot nearly 54 percent from the field and over 53 percent from 3, their highest marks of the playoffs. Across 40 regular season games, the Sun only had two superior shooting performances. So while a hot shooting afternoon helped Connecticut avoid elimination, it’s not a sustainable strategy for the Sun.

Rather than hanging 92 points on the Lynx’s top-two defense, the Sun should seek to hold down the Lynx offense. In the second half of Game 4, Connecticut did just that, limiting Minnesota to 32 points after the break. The Sun doubled down on their defensive principles—guarding their yard, not overhelping, getting back in transition—to gum up the Lynx’s offensive machine, which was whirring in the first half. On Tuesday night, it will require two halves of tip-top defense for Connecticut to advance to the Finals for the third time in six seasons.

Sun players also must step up and sink timely shots. In Game 4, Ty Harris was ready for that job. Back in the starting lineup after an early-playoff ankle injury had limited her playing time, she was 4-for-5 from 3 as she led the Sun with 20 points. Harris’ return to the first five pushed Marina Mabrey back to the bench. In Game 5, the Sun need an aggressive, efficient scoring night from her.

It will also be interesting to see if head coach Stephanie White again opts for smaller lineups, frequently playing Harris and Mabrey alongside Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and DiJonai Carrington. In Game 4, Brionna Jones saw just 14 minutes, as the game’s tempo did not match the skillset she brings as a traditional big. Will White and the Sun again seek to neutralize the Lynx’s efforts to push the pace by playing smaller? Or, could Jones’ post play serve as a reliable source of offense in a do-or-die game, which, like most decisive games, could become a grind?

The Finals countdown

Although this matchup may have lacked the glitz of the other semifinal series, where starry super teams from New York and Vegas renewed their rivalry, it’s provided plenty of high-level, yet heated, hoops. Get ready for a chippy and choppy Game 5, featuring shoves, scowls, stares and, hopefully, some down-to-the-wire suspense.

Game information

No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx (2-2) vs. No. 3-seed Connecticut Sun (2-2)

When: Tuesday, Oct. 8 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: ESPN2

Lynx injury report: none

Sun injury report: Tiffany Mitchell (out; illness)