We published our list of the Top 25 And 1 college basketball coaches earlier this week. It’s a nice honor, I think, if only because inclusion ensures you’re not entering the season on the so-called hot seat.
What’s the hot seat?
In my mind, it’s a place reserved for men who need to have a good season — and by good season, I mostly mean make the NCAA Tournament — or else the job they currently possess could open in March. Yes, those pink slips often come with million-dollar buyouts; that certainly softens the blow. But it still stinks. Because nobody enjoys getting fired. So this is the lousiest list of the preseason — both to be on and write.
Speculating about other folks’ jobs isn’t fun.
But we all have jobs to do — and this is part of mine. So here’s a list of five men who need to have good seasons to ensure they’ll return for the next one.
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David Cobb
Johnny Dawkins | UCF
Record at school: 148-103 entering eighth season
Last NCAA Tournament appearance at school: 2019
Only two of the five coaches who were on last season’s hot-seat list survived — Clemson’s Brad Brownell, who saved his job by going 24-12 and advancing to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, and Dawkins, who saved his job by, I guess, not embarrassing UCF in its first season in the Big 12. Still, the Knights only finished 17-16 overall, 7-11 in the Big 12, and missed the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in eight years under Dawkins. If that run extends to eight misses in nine years, a change in leadership at UCF will probably follow Selection Sunday.
Porter Moser | Oklahoma
Record at school: 54-45 entering fourth season
Last NCAA Tournament appearance at school: None
Four of the past five Oklahoma coaches — Billy Tubbs, Kelvin Sampson, Jeff Capel and Lon Kruger — have made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in their first three years at the school. The only one who didn’t touch that bar is Moser, who is 20-35 in conference games through three years with the Sooners. Unfortunately, that record isn’t expected to improve this season — evidence being that Oklahoma was recently picked 15th in the official SEC preseason poll. If that’s how Year 4 actually unfolds, there might not be a Year 5 for Moser at OU.
Kyle Neptune | Villanova
Record at school: 35-33 entering third season
Last NCAA Tournament appearance at school: None
Villanova made nine straight NCAA Tournaments before Jay Wright retired. Two of those appearances resulted in national championships. The program was consistently operating at the tip-top of the sport, which is why Neptune is in trouble after only two years at the school, because he’s underachieved in both seasons and still never made the NCAA Tournament. In the 2022-23 season, his Wildcats were picked third in the Big East but finished tied for sixth. In the 2023-24 season, his Wildcats were picked fourth in the Big East but finished tied for sixth again. If Neptune doesn’t have Villanova in the field of 68 this season, he likely won’t get a fourth.
Mike Woodson | Indiana
Record at school: 63-40 entering fourth season
Last NCAA Tournament appearance at school: 2023
Indiana has finished at least 18 spots lower at KenPom.com than it started in all three seasons under Woodson — and still hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2016, when Tom Crean took the the Hoosiers to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament (one year before being fired). To be clear, it hasn’t been a disaster for Woodson at his alma mater. But, relative to what Indiana fans have established as the standard, it clearly hasn’t been good enough. If you listen to the Eye On College Basketball Podcast, you probably know that I believe Indiana will be good this season, and that Woodson will return for a fifth. But, if the Hoosiers fail to meet expectations for the fourth straight year, especially if they’re looking up at in-state rival Purdue for the fifth straight year, a coaching change should probably follow.
Mike Young | Virginia Tech
Record at school: 92-66 entering sixth season
Last NCAA Tournament appearance at school: 2022
Coaches are often compared to their predecessors, fairly or unfairly, and it’s simply a fact that Young hasn’t accomplished through five seasons what his predecessor, Buzz Williams, accomplished. Williams had three NCAA Tournament appearances and two NCAA Tournament wins through five years. Young has two NCAA Tournament appearances and zero NCAA Tournament wins through five years. Now, heading into Year 6, Young’s Hokies were picked 14th in the ACC. So unless they overachieve dramatically, that’ll be zero NCAA Tournament wins through six years — and three straight seasons without a trip to the Big Dance. Needless to say, that might be hard to survive.
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Kyle Boone
