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Japan’s ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic party has lost its parliamentary majority, in a shock rebuke by voters that plunges the country into political uncertainty.
The LDP’s worst electoral reversal for 15 years, which will leave the party struggling to govern and recently anointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under pressure to resign, came in a snap election he called to try to draw a line under a slush-fund scandal.
The loss of the coalition’s previously comfortable majority was a much worse result for the party than most analysts had forecast and reflects surging discontent in Japan after years of stagnant wage growth combined with recent sharp increases in the cost of living.
“Looking at results, it is true voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly accept this result,” Ishiba told NHK in a televised interview.
NHK seat counts showed the LDP and its much smaller coalition partner Komeito fell well short of the 233 seats needed to control Japan’s lower house of parliament. At 3am on Monday morning, with 5 seats left to declare, the LDP had secured only 190, while Komeito had 24.
Economists warned that the electorate’s unexpectedly severe punishment of the LDP could trigger high volatility in markets on Monday. While the LDP will remain the largest party, parliamentary paralysis could stop its tentative pro-growth structural reform agenda in its tracks.
Analysts said failure to achieve a coalition majority would put the LDP under pressure to find other coalition partners and to consider readmitting members of parliament whom it did not endorse for this election because of their involvement in the slush fund scandal. The rush to secure allies could also force the LDP to compromise with several small, populist parties with fundamentally different policy agendas.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic party of Japan made major gains, taking 146 seats by 3am.
The CDPJ, which is led by former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, had focused its campaign on public revulsion at the slush-fund scandal embroiling the LDP.
Political analysts have said the loss of a coalition majority will almost certainly force the resignation of Ishiba, who was elevated to the role just weeks ago and who surprised many in his own party by calling the election in record time. Were he to quit, Ishiba would become Japan’s shortest-serving leader of the modern era.
Ishiba told NHK earlier on election night that it was premature to discuss whether he would step down and take responsibility for the heavy reversal.
But the scale of the LDP’s setback appears likely to usher in a new episode for Japanese politics and to mark the decisive end of the era dominated by the policies of late prime minister Shinzo Abe.
Jesper Koll, an economist and long-term Japan watcher, said the result would intensify infighting and rivalries inside the LDP, making progress on reform almost impossible.
“In the world of money and investment, a key pillar to the bullish Japan thesis has been that Japan is a bastion of political and policy stability. After today’s election, this will become more difficult to argue,” Koll said.
Overall turnout was very low, reflecting in part a view expressed by many younger Japanese that mainstream politics are no longer able to solve the country’s many problems. Kyodo News put voter turnout at 53.8 per cent, one of Japan’s lowest on record.
Retiree Kimihiro Okuma, a longtime supporter of the LDP, said earlier in the day that he was planning to shift his vote to another party.
“As a capitalist country, we have been safe under the Liberal Democratic party, and I think that was good, but recently things have become outrageous,” said Okuma, 79. “I basically support them, but . . . they have not changed the fundamental nature of the party, and they should be punished.”
It was by far the LDP’s worst result since it lost power in 2009 to the Democratic party, a forerunner of the CDPJ. Ishiba, an LDP veteran, told a rally on Saturday that his party — in government for most of the past 70 years — was facing its “first major headwind” since it returned to power in 2012.
Ishiba’s unusually frank admission highlighted the risk he took in calling the election just a few days after being sworn in. A move intended to catch the opposition parties off guard and secure a clear public mandate instead gave voters a forum to vent their dissatisfaction.
In his last day of campaigning, CDPJ leader Noda had stressed that the opposition party did not expect to win a majority and was not presenting radically different policies, but that the election represented a chance to punish the LDP and dent its capacity to rule.
The LDP, said Noda, shows “no sign of remorse” for the scandal that had dominated headlines for months and called on voters to end an era of politics in which “the general public are made to look like fools”.
