The hope. The anticipation. Sneakers squeaking. Basketballs bouncing. Whistles chirping. Coaches already in full-throat before the season is in full throe.
Find a quiet spot and, if you really try hard enough, you’ll hear college basketball building for its long-awaited return in the first week of November. College hoops season is less than three weeks away, but more than 360 teams across the United States have been ramping and tuning up for weeks. We’re all just about ready to tip this thing off — and angst grows as we lurch toward Nov. 4. Once the games begin, we can only hope the phantasmagoric will arrive as scheduled — but without a hint of its imminent entry, for maximum impact — as this beautiful mess of a sport is sure to take us on another great journey of joy, shock and madness.
Ah, we know it will. We just don’t know the when, who, how or why. That’s why we love this sport so much.
Before we get another college basketball campaign going, let’s zoom out and lock in. As has been the case for a decade now, I’ve foolishly and enthusiastically taken to a master preseason ranking of teams. My methods are uncomplicated but diligent: examine the rosters, check in with coaches for intel, evaluate programs based on recent success (or a lack of it), factor in (and try to discern) inevitable surges and fades, and mostly avoid preseason metrics as to not be influenced by the (often accurate) biases of algorithms. Oh, and: Be sure to just let a few inexplicable predictions rip and hope for the best.
A note on this year’s process. With the Big Ten and ACC now 18 teams, plus the Big 12 and SEC beefing up to 16 apiece, I found myself wrestling a bit with how to place power-conference teams from about the No. 60 spot and below. Will we see the 79 teams from the power conferences (Big East has 11 and is also in that class) all mostly wind up as top-100 teams in most ratings systems by season’s end? Will most of the 79 work their way into the top 70? Is the deck going to prove to be stacked that much in their favor?
Or will a dozen-or-so mid-majors break through and find themselves ranked in the top 60? I think that’s still possible, and my predictions reflect that, but if it skews toward the big boys in massive ways, I’ll take that into consideration a year from now. I want to see how this new world of mass high-major expansion impacts the universe of college hoops, however that winds up playing out.
Once more unto the breach, away we go!
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports design
In what feels like a wide-open season just over the horizon, I’m taking a team at No. 1 with the preseason national player of the year; a team that brought in one of the best transfer classes of the offseason; a team that is adding multiple five-star freshman; and a team that had the No. 2-ranked offense last season en route to the Final Four. Alabama.
The Tide are in the rare spot of having the men’s basketball band ranked higher in the preseason than the football fellas, just the eighth time that’s happened and the first time since 2006. (Bama football was No. 5 in the preseason.) Alabama, of course, is coming off its first Final Four in school history. Now it’s going to try to become just the fourth SEC school (joining Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky) to make back-to-back Final Fours. Remember, the Tide was wicked unpredictable on defense last season, but survived in the NCAAs despite that, beating trendy Charleston and 30-win Grand Canyon before upsetting No. 1 UNC and then pushing past Clemson in the Elite Eight. Ultimately, Alabama lost by 14 to UConn in the national semis, which was the Huskies’ smallest margin of victory in the NCAAs.
Nate Oats did this after losing his entire staff the previous offseason, in addition to the Brandon Miller debacle. Now he’s got one of the strongest rosters in the sport, led by CBS Sports Preseason Player of the Year Mark Sears. The inventive lead guard averaged 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Returning with Sears are two more fifth-year guys: Grant Nelson (11.9 ppg) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (8.9 ppg), in addition to promising 6-11 sophomore Jarin Stevenson. Oats picked up notable transfers Chris Youngblood (15.3 ppg at South Florida), Houston Mallette (14.7 ppg at Pepperdine), Clifford Omoruyi (10.4 ppg at Rutgers) and a quisling in former Auburn guard Aden Holloway (7.3 ppg).
Oh, and there’s also two five-star freshmen in play: power forward Derrion Reid and center Aiden Sherrell. Bama has a loaded nonconference schedule (it plays Purdue, UNC and Houston, all top seeds last March, plus Illinois, Rutgers and Creighton, in addition to hosting a lot of really good mid-majors; it only has six non-con home games, the lowest of any high-major team in the country), so there’s a chance the Tide accrues some losses that affect their standing in the human rankings. But I’m expecting this team to be a No. 1 seed and a clear title contender from Game 1. If Sears plays to expectations and the offense remains elite, this will be the best Alabama team in school history.
2. Houston
A program that has finished No. 2 at KenPom.com three years running, so let’s slot it right there again. Houston’s averaged a nation-leading 30.2 wins the past six seasons, amassing 13 NCAA Tournament victories in that span. It hasn’t lost more than five league games in a season in that span, including postseason play. The Cougars moved from the American to the Big 12 last season, and not only was there no drop-off whatsoever, the team seemed emboldened by its conference upgrade. A year ago, UH lost a First Team All-American (Marcus Sasser), only to produce another: Jamal Shead. Now Shead is gone (and had he not ripped up his ankle against Duke in the NCAAs, it’s all too conceivable Houston would’ve been at the Final Four in place of NC State).
The Cougars’ next player in line for All-American status is senior L.J. Cryer, who averaged 15.5 points last season and should show his best yet. The Coogs also bring back proven players Emanuel Sharp (12.6 ppg), J’Wan Roberts (9.5 ppg), Ja’Vier Francis (6.0 ppg) and Joseph Tugler — a key defensive presence whose season ended in February. There’s also Terrance Arceneaux, also coming back from injury and whose time surely must be coming. Milos Uzan, via Oklahoma, will be productive in a supporting role that won’t require him to be an alpha. Kelvin Sampson’s a proven commodity in college hoops. The Big 12 might be the best conference in the sport again, and while Kansas is rightfully getting a lot of No. 1 buzz heading into the season, I’ll slightly side in that league with the program whose defense has been more reliable in the past half-decade than any other in college basketball.
3. Kansas
We’re going to see a lot of good three-man cores this season, but Kansas could have the best in the sport: Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr. They’re all back and each does a variety of things different from the other two that will, again, make Kansas a national title threat. KU was supposed to be that a season ago, but the Jayhawks faced injury issues and withered down the stretch, finishing 27th at KenPom, its all-time low-water mark in that metric’s 28-year database. The Jayhawks have reinforcements coming in, and the outlook is optimistic because AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) are all proven scorers AND shooters. Griffen could be near the top of the list of best 3-point snipers if his trajectory translates. KU also has top-20 prospect Flory Bidunga, a center, and four-star guard Rakease Passmore coming in. No Elmarko Jackson, though; he’s out for the season with patellar tendon injury he suffered in June.
The Jayhawks’ biggest problem last season was depth. At one point, Self told me, he seriously debated whether or not to play his five best players together for about 36 out of 40 minutes in a game — and hockey-sub five bench players and try to survive that way. He never did it, but it would have been a fascinating approach. This team, knock on wood, will not need to be kept together with lattice. Dickinson is a preseason First Team All-American in this, his final season of college eligibility. Everything is in place for another great run in Lawrence.
4. UConn
Most others in this scenario wouldn’t sniff the top 10, solely because of the amount of unproven players that are going to step into new roles and more prominent tasks in Storrs. But UConn is different. Dan Hurley is even more different than different. I’ve got the Huskies at No. 4 because the program kept Hurley and won the angsty sweepstakes against the Lakers. The coaching staff is still entirely intact, too. And Alex Karaban, a two-time national champion as a starter on both teams, turned down the NBA for one more year in order to chase NCAA history. That’s enough to give the Huskies the benefit of the doubt and place them this high heading into the season. Connecticut lost four starters (Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle) who’ll likely be replaced in the starting lineup by Hassan Diarra, Samson Johnson, Solo Ball and Liam McNeeley. The first three are returnees and McNeeley earned CBS Sports Freshman All-America honors. One guy who’s probably going to earn a fair share of starts is Jaylin Stewart. Connecticut also picked up lead guard Aidan Mahaney from Saint Mary’s.
The two most recent back-to-back champions were Florida in 2007 and Duke in 1992. In the subsequent seasons, Florida went 24-12, made the NIT and was 8-9 vs. SEC opponents. It never reached No. 1 in the AP poll in 2007-08. The 1992-93 Duke team finished 24-8 and went 10-7 vs. ACC opponents. It lost to Cal in the second round of the NCAAs. The Devils spent five weeks at No. 1. Relatedly, we polled 100-plus coaches this summer and asked if they thought UConn would make a third straight Final Four: 68% said no. But the fact 32% said yes is incredible.
Hurley is the face of college basketball and one of the most prominent coaches in American sports. He is operating at the peak of his powers, and knowing him, he’s obsessed with proving people wrong and is probably sounding klaxons over being put fourth on this list. It will be absurdly difficult to win three national titles in a row. I can’t wait to see this version of UConn and how the story plays out over the next five months.
5. Duke
Another year, another loaded Duke roster? Yes, but this one includes the most hyped incoming prospect in a generation. Although Zion Williamson became a transcendent sensation, he wasn’t expected to be a First Team All-American when he started at Duke; he wasn’t even the highest-rated prospect on the team. (RJ Barrett AND Cam Reddish were both ranked above Williamson in 2018.)
Now, Cooper Flagg, the CBS Sports Preseason Freshman of the Year, represents Duke’s chance to recapture the nation’s attention. He could be the best player in the sport … but he’s also got a lot around him that may lead to a different reality. Flagg’s certainly regarded as the top NBA Draft prospect heading into November. Fortunately, he’ll have veterans to acclimate him, most notably junior point guard Tyrese Proctor, sophomore guard Caleb Foster and grad senior Mason Gillis, who comes by way of Purdue, bringing a lot of winning experience with him from West Lafayette, Indiana.
Jon Scheyer enters Year 3. The pressure will be significant. He’s done a really good job through the first two campaigns, but these next five-to-six months seem destined to feel a lot different. Expectations will be to win the ACC, then get a top-two seed in the NCAAs and to make the Final Four after coming one game short last spring. Proctor has to be more consistent. Flagg’s fellow freshmen are all ranked top-30: Isaiah Evans, a lanky 6-foot-7 wing; Khaman Maluach, a 7-1 center from South Sudan who played in the Olympics; Kon Knueppel, a 6-5 shooting guard who might be the skeleton key for this offense; Pat Ngongba (currently dealing with a foot injury), a 6-10 power forward (the idea that he could be the eighth- or ninth-most important player on this team speaks to how loaded Duke is); and Darren Harris, a 6-4 shooting guard who most fan bases would be doing cartwheels over if he was on their roster. Scheyer also has Tulane transfer Sion James (14.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 38% from 3-point range), who will get a lot of run. Can Duke win big despite having so much youth, and how much youth will they rely on? The Blue Devils will be a national story every week, and whether you like, love or hate them, that’s a good thing for college basketball.
For the third straight year, I’m higher on the Bears than just about anyone you’ll find. It’s working out for me: BU has had a No. 1- or No. 3-seeded résumé the past five years (counting 2020 when that season ended). Scott Drew lost a LOT from last season, and he’s also had some coaching turnover on his staff, but until I see true drop-off in Waco I’m not bailing on Baylor as a top-10 program. This year, I’ve slotted the Bears second in the Big 12 and easily in the Final-Four-contenders discussion. Drew will have to account for losing another lottery pick one-and-done guy (Ja’Kobe Walter) by … bringing in another lottery pick one-and-done guy (VJ Edgecombe). There is a workable chance Edgecombe winds up leading all freshmen in scoring. He’s receiving buzz already for how dynamic his game is. Real star potential. Whether he should or will be tasked with being Baylor’s leader is another matter. Langston Love (11.0 ppg) and Jayden Nunn (10.5 ppg) are the two prominent guys back for the Bears. They’ll play with Duke transfer Jeremy Roach in the backcourt. Roach has said he wants to be a pure point guard in this Baylor scheme. If that happens and he’s an elite decision-maker, then Baylor will be a top-10 team. The Bears also got a crucial transfer in fifth-year player Norchad Omier, who flew up from Miami.
Baylor’s varying looks will be interesting. I expect a lot of small-ball with Omier at the 5, flanked by Edgecombe at the 4, Langston at 3, Nunn at the 2 and Roach playing the 1. If Omier plays power forward, then junior Josh Ojianwuna will step in at center. Robert Wright III and Jason Asemota are two more fresh bodies (and freshmen) who will see some time. Be patient with the Bears. No high-major team has a tougher first two games. They’re playing Gonzaga in GU’s backyard on opening night, then facing Arkansas in Dallas five days later. St. John’s, UConn and Tennessee (potentially) are also on the schedule. Then it’s Big 12 time. Similar to Alabama, this team could be better than its loss total indicates.
7. Purdue
Lose the best player in school history and stay a top-10 team? That’s what great culture and elite coaching will do for you. That’s what Purdue has. The only school to win more games over the past three years than Purdue is the one I have ranked at No. 2. The Big Ten — now a ridiculous, nobody-asked-for-this 18-school union — feels as hodgepodge as ever. But I’ll take the Boilermakers to emerge at the top again. Three starters are back, the most important being Braden Smith, who could become a top-three point guard if this offense regenerates properly, Doctor Who-style, without Zach Edey. Purdue, in total, has 46% of its scoring back from last season’s team that made it to the national championship. Look for Trey Kaufman-Renn to be THE breakout player in the Big Ten. In two seasons he’s averaged 4.5 and 6.4 points. That number should double, minimally. Caleb Furst is also likely to bust from his shell.
But this is Purdue, so let’s talk centers. Who are the new towers in play? There’s Daniel Jacobsen (7-4) and Will Berg (7-2). The Jesse Pinkman memes about Painter continually recruiting alien-sized players will continue apace once the games get going. Purdue has rostered a 7-footer 13 years in a row which, for all we know, is an all-time NCAA record. (If you know of a school that’s had a 7-footer for 14 straight seasons, please find me.)
Here’s an intriguing note from Purdue: The team brings back 60% of its starting minutes from a season ago. Why does that matter? This is the 11th time under Painter that Purdue has brought back that much year-over-year. The eight most recent times Purdue brought back “at least 110 starts” from the year before, Purdue made the Sweet 16 in six of those seasons. Its winning percentage in those eight seasons: .789. That’s really, really good. And given the growth of Smith and Fletcher Loyer, it should signal stability in the foggiest power conference in college basketball. Purdue has 113 league wins the past eight seasons. No high-major team claims more. Its Big Ten reign will continue by winning a fifth conference title in a nine-year span.
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8. Tennessee
The Volunteers had the second-best player in college basketball last season. Dalton Knecht will go down as one of the best up-transfers in college hoops history. From Northern Colorado to SEC POY. And Tennessee made a fun run to the Elite Eight before losing to the best player in college basketball. Rick Barnes not only lost Knecht, but also Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi and Tobe Awaka. It’s a lot! Maybe Tennessee suffers a plummet and proves to be, like, the eighth-best team in the SEC. But I’m gonna zag on that theory.
I’ll stick with the Barnes formula and register UT as the No. 2 team in the league. Critically, Zakai Zeigler‘s leadership at point guard is still in play in Knoxville. Zeigler can be a top-20 player nationally, buttressed by the fact that he’s probably a top-10 defensive guard (at 5-8, no less). Zeigler’s going to be at his best physically this season, and he’ll pair in the backcourt with a North Florida transfer who hopes to be the next Knecht. His name is Chaz Lanier and he shot 44% from 3-point range last season while averaging 19.7 points. I like him to easily average double digits in the SEC.
Barnes also brought on Felix Okpara from Ohio State, a quick-twitch center who could threaten to average three blocks and is a major reason why Tennessee will still be regarded as an SEC contender. I like sophomore J.P. Estrella to have a breakout season. Unclear whether he’ll start in November, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he was hearing his name called in pregame by February. Due to the SEC’s depth, accurately predicting even the 1-5 order of this league will be near-impossible. But until I see Tennessee significantly drop under Barnes, the Vols (as a regular-season operation) deserve the benefit of every doubt.
9. Gonzaga
Mark Few is feeling revitalized. He’s coming off his time with Team USA at the Olympics, where he served as an assistant on the gold-medal winning team. It’d be no shock if Few picked up a few extra tricks from Steve Kerr and deployed some fun stuff in his offense in the months forthcoming. The Bulldogs are dinged slightly by the unfortunate loss — for the second year in a row — of small forward Steele Venters. The Eastern Washington transfer suffered an Achilles tear less than a year after rupturing an ACL. He figured to be a double-digit scorer.
This being Gonzaga, I still think the Bulldogs find a way to have one of the best offenses in the sport for the ninth straight season. Graham Ike (16.5 ppg) will probably have the best season of his career; the timing is great considering this is his last one. Same goes for Ryan Nembhard, a fringe preseason All-America candidate who could threaten to average 15 points and 7 assists.
Gonzaga has 81.4% of its minutes back from 2023-24, seventh-most in the country, according to BartTorvik.com. The only high-major program bringing back more is Notre Dame, per Torvik, and the only other two in the top 25 in terms of power-conference programs are Houston and Marquette. In bringing back more than 80% of the team’s minutes, continuity should provide an easy transition and a likely 18th straight season with 25-plus wins. Guys like Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg and Dusty Stromer should all play increased roles, while Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi (absolute hooper) and Arkansas import Khalif Battle (on his fourth school in four years, no less) reinforce GU’s firepower and experience factor. The question is: Have we seen Gonzaga at its best, or does Few have another Final Four-level team in him? This one seems to have a shot. Fortunately, we don’t have to wait to see the goods. The Zags play Baylor on opening night, thankfully giving college hoops a true marquee matchup to tip off the season.
There’s split opinion on how viable North Carolina is after losing one of the most productive players in school history, Armando Bacot, in addition to saying goodbye to double-digit scorers Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. The most important player was RJ Davis, and lucky for UNC, the First Team All-American is using his COVID year for one last dance. Asking Davis (21.2 ppg) to recreate his impact from his senior season will be tough, but he might not have to in order to keep North Carolina in the top two in the ACC.
Davis has company in the backcourt with familiar teammates Elliot Cadeau (expect a much better player this season), Seth Trimble and Jae’Lyn Withers coming back to Chapel Hill. Belmont transfer Cade Tyson (16.2 ppg) brings shooting reinforcements, while Vanderbilt big Ven-Allen Lubin is going to play with Jalen Washington to hopefully keep UNC’s frontcourt somewhat respectable. UNC’s lack of interior presence is the elephant in the room when we discuss the Heels’ chances of being a national title contender.
Ironically, I’m in on Carolina as a top-10 team because of its top two freshmen. It’s counterintuitive in this final year of the bonus COVID year to think that 18-year-olds could be linchpin-type players, but that is setting up as the case here. Ian Jackson was ranked No. 8 in his class. The 6-5 2-guard from the Bronx could be a streaky shooter, but he’s going to be a lot of fun as a potential sometimes-starter. Drake Powell (No. 11 in the class of 2024) is a guy I can’t wait to watch. Powell’s a strong wing, someone who could prove to be a high-level defender right away. It wouldn’t surprise me if those two wound up being top-10 freshmen.
UNC fell short of a second Final Four in three years under Hubert Davis, despite being a No. 1 seed, thanks to slamming into high-octane Alabama. Asking this group to build top-20 formats in offensive and defensive efficiency (which seems plausible as far as I’m concerned) should equate to Carolina again being in the Final Four mix. Things get going early: Nov. 8 at Kansas is a wonderful matchup in the first week of the season. Then UNC will test itself in Maui in that loaded field before eventually facing the likes of Alabama, Florida and UCLA in December. This team is going to take losses but will solidify itself to tussle with Duke atop the ACC.
11. St. John’s
Let’s just buy the ticket and take the ride. This is admittedly an aggressive spot for the Johnnies, who are coming off the shocking non-inclusion to the NCAAs. Not just that — St. John’s wasn’t even in the first four out after giving UConn its closest game in all of March and April. The Red Storm went 20-13 with a 4-10 record in Quad 1 and 3-1 in Quad 3. It wasn’t enough. Now it needs to be better than an 11-9 team in the Big East that’s sitting in fifth. I think it clears that bar with ease in ’24-25. Rick Pitino is going to be a mad scientist making sure this team is nowhere near the bubble, despite the departures of Daniss Jenkins, Joel Soriano, Jordan Dingle, Chris Leldum and Nahiem Alleyne. They merely combined to average more than 57 points per game no biggie. My favorite conspiracy theory is Pitino went to Kentucky’s Big Blue Madness and donned a UK sweater, whipping up multiple fan bases into a tizzy, knowing all the while he’s got a team that’s going to kill it this season.
So, who’s stepping up? RJ Luis (10.9 ppg) is the most important returnee, though I’d bank on Simeon Wilcher (2.8 ppg) quadrupling his scoring output in his sophomore season. He was a good team player, but now it’s time to embrace a much more prominent role. Not as prominent as Kadary Richmond, who crossed enemy lines and made the switch from Seton Hall to SJU. Richmond will be on the short list of preseason Big East player of the year honors after averaging nearly 16 points at the Hall and scoring more than 1,200 points in his career. I think he’s a dark horse choice for NPOY, too. Richmond will be set up by a great portal get in Deivon Smith, who averaged 13.3 points, 7.1 assists and 6.3 rebounds at Utah. Just a huge add there.
Another key name is Vincent Iwuchukwu, who could benefit from a change in scenery after giving it an honest go the past two seasons at USC, following his heart scare in the summer of 2022. Look for Iwuchukwu to back up Zuby Ejiofor at the 5 and for North Texas 4-man Aaron Scott to be the first player off the bench. I love the talent blend and obviously trust the coaching. This could be UConn’s biggest challenger in the Big East, and after last March’s fireworks at MSG, who doesn’t want to see more of that?
Longtime readers know (and love?) my penchant for taking a few big swings every year in my top 25. Similar to St. John’s, I am all the way in on Wake Forest: Top 15 Team. I’m just as in on the idea that lead guard Hunter Sallis will become a First Team All-American after bypassing the NBA Draft. Sallis averaged 18.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and shot 40.5% from 3 last season. He’s the latest transfer to downright thrive in Steve Forbes’ system. Did Forbes land his transfers based on his reputation for being a portal whisperer?
“Oh, without question — because they were offered way more money by other people,” Forbes told me last season. “You have to have some (NIL), you can’t just come in here empty handed. But, Hunter made a business decision. He did his homework.”
Sallis’ jolt of confidence has Wake Forest’s fanbase feeling more beatific heading into a November than it’s been in a decade-plus. Sallis is super-receptive to coaching, has an insatiable work ethic and everyone in the program follows his lead. This year, Sallis carries Wake into the upper echelon of the ACC and gets the Deacs to the NCAAs, snapping the school’s eight-year drought. He returns alongside another key Deacon, Efton Reid. If Reid can avoid foul trouble, he could emerge as one of the best bigs in the conference. Cameron Hildreth is also back in the starting lineup, effectively playing a third guard. The point? That will be Ty-Laur Johnson (Louisville), but given this is Wake, new bodies abound. App State transfer Tre’Von Spillers will play the 4, while Omaha Biliew (Iowa State) and Davin Cosby (Alabama) will also be getting plenty of run in their new surroundings. When Wake Forest is wrecking teams, remember who was first aboard the ship.
13. Marquette
Like pretty much every Marquette fan, I’m a convert to the notion that Shaka Smart is in the perfect place for what he wants to achieve in his career. The Golden Eagles are averaging 25 wins per season through Smart’s first three years. I think they hit that number in Year 4 … but I also must draw attention to the reality that this will be Smart’s first season at MU without Tyler Kolek in the locker room. His leadership and presence helped cement the foundation for Smart’s vision of a reborn Marquette program. Now Kolek’s off in the NBA and soon to be playing in a building he once won a championship in: Madison Square Garden.
The Golden Eagles should still be one of the Big East’s best because they do in fact return their leading scorer. Kam Jones and his 17.2 points per game are still here, flanked in the backcourt by Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross. Underestimate that troika at your own peril. Forward David Joplin is also back, and yeah this is the place where I remind you that Smart opted not to bring in a transfer yet again. He’s making it work. Against the rip tides of the sport, Smart is pulling this off. (Big man Ben Gold is about to have a breakout season as well, you can practically smell it.) If this prediction proves correct and Marquette winds up with a No. 4 seed or better for the third straight season, Smart’s going to be able to charge outrageous public appearance rates to speak at coaching clinics across the country. They’ve got something really strong going, and with nearly 73% of the team’s minutes still here from a season ago, it’s more than fair to give this lot the benefit of the doubt following two seasons in which they finished 13th and 10th at KenPom.
After three seasons and 88 wins in the Pac-12, Tommy Lloyd now takes his high-octane offense into the Big 12. The Wildcats figure to be one of the five best teams in that outstanding conference — something reflected in the preseason AP Top 25, where Arizona ranked fifth among Big 12 teams but was still ranked 10th. (Damn.)
It’s practically unheard of to have five returning All-Americans in college basketball in this generation, but that’s what we’re getting. One of those five is the final Pac-12 (As We Knew It) Player of the Year: Caleb Love. He’s back for one more season, which means Arizona will be irresistible to watch. Love had some really good moments last season, in addition to the expected dose of Anything Could Happen On This Possession (Watch Out!). Also returning: Jaden Bradley (love his defense; crazy underrated player) and KJ Lewis (big breakout potential as a sophomore). Those three will be Arizona’s backcourt, and they’ll start alongside 7-2 sophomore Motiejus Krivas and Horizon League POY Trey Townsend, who helped Oakland to that charmed Cinderella run.
Lloyd should get some frontcourt insurance from Tobe Awaka, who arrives after playing for Tennessee. Reports out of Tucson also indicate Anthony Dell’orso and Henri Veesaar have been absolute studs, with freshman Carter Bryant exceeding expectations, too. It will be enticing to see how this team adapts to the Big 12. Is Arizona going to come in and be as good in its first year the way Houston was last season? That wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m going to stop short of that. I like a team in the 3-5 seed range that yet again will rank near the top of the most watchable offenses in choops.
15. Kentucky
This is going to feel refreshing for everyone. John Calipari’s time at UK needed to end. He did a lot of great things there, but the program was aching for a reboot. In comes affable alum Mark Pope, and what a flip this has been. Big Blue Nation went from despondent to delirious over the course of 48 hours after his hiring became public, a fan reaction reversion the likes of which I can’t ever recall. So, how will the Wildcats look under new management?
Pope has seemingly assembled a 10-deep roster without holding on to a single player who was in uniform in Lexington last season. My best guess at the opening day starting five: Kerr Kriisa (WVU transfer), Lamont Butler (SDSU transfer), Andrew Carr (Wake Forest transfer), Jaxson Robinson (BYU transfer) and Amari Williams (Drexel transfer). Those five combined to average 60 points last season. First off the bench figures to be 3-point specialist Koby Brea, who might even play his way into the starting role. Brea’s commitment to UK solidified this roster’s validity as top 25-quality.
Pope also has Ansley Almonor (16.4 ppg at Fairleigh Dickinson), Otega Oweh (11.4 ppg at Oklahoma) and Brandon Garrison (7.5 ppg at Oklahoma State), with Garrison’s long-term potential being a building block for the Pope era. Freshmen Collin Chandler, Travis Perry and Trent Noah will give the UK staff a deployment that’s deeper than just about any roster Calipari had at Kentucky. (Notice I didn’t write “more talented.”) With games against Duke, Gonzaga, at Clemson and vs. Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic, the Wildcats will be tested regularly. I can’t wait to see how this behemoth of a program is reborn with a vastly different personality calling the shots.
16. UCLA
I got to spend an afternoon this spring at UCLA, and one of the big takeaways for the year ahead was how connected and mature the group was in Westwood. Mick Cronin needed this, you’ll recall, because he was as vocally critical of his team as any coach last season. (To the point where some in college basketball wondered if he was looking for a way out. UCLA went 16-17 and was a huge letdown. Cronin had never been so out of answers.)
Turns out, things weren’t so bad as to have a roster revolt. Three players that combined to average 37 points last season are back: point guard Dylan Andrews, shooting guard Sebastian Mack and small forward Lazar Stefanovic. UCLA is also bringing back the 7-3 Aday Mara who, with Zach Edey gone, will be among the tallest players in the sport. There’s more, of course. UCLA actually had NIL resources during this past cycle, so expect Cronin to go 10-deep thanks to bringing on five transfers that averaged double-digit scoring, led by Tyler Bilodeau (14.3 ppg at Oregon State) and Dominick Harris (14.3 ppg at Loyola Marymount).
From 2020-23, Cronin had offenses that ranked 11th, 12th and 21st in efficiency at KenPom. Last season it cratered to 152. I’d be shocked if this group didn’t at least get into the top 40 and with a team that is more 3-point reliant than any of Cronin’s previous squads at UCLA. There might be some small sacrifice on the defensive end (which Cronin will understandably resist), but it’s a worthwhile trade-off to get UCLA back into the top-25 conversation. I’m bullish on the Bruins in their first year in the Big Ten.
17. Creighton
The Bluejays clear a preseason top-20 designation thanks to getting resolute big man Ryan Kalkbrenner back for a fifth and final season. Kalkbrenner is the early automatic frontrunner for Big East defensive player of the year, which doubles in selling him as a top-five defender in the sport. (He’s won DPOY in the Big East three years running and will tie Patrick Ewing’s mark of four in a row if he does it again.) Big Kalk averaged 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks for a borderline top-10 team. It won’t be easy, but mark me down for it: He betters all of those numbers in ’24-25.
Fortunately, Kalk is back with Mason Miller and Steven Ashworth also returning to the fold. That’s critical in Creighton’s quest to capture top-three status in the Big East for a sixth time in a seven-year stretch. It won’t be easy due to the losses of Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander, both of whom are now in the NBA. And I wonder about CU’s depth. The big portal get was Pop Isaacs, who averaged 15.8 points in a clattering season at Texas Tech. Isaac Traudt should be a growth prospect as a movable 4-man in Greg McDermott’s system. Every year we get a handful of teams that are capable of only playing seven guys yet maintain nationally ranked status. I think the Jays are going to clear that bar, extending one more year in what’s unequivocally been the best stretch of success in program history.
Switching from Juwan Howard to Dusty May is going to be a near-180 culture overturn in Ann Arbor. Howard ultimately closed himself off to too many people and became too stubborn in trying to run a program. It redounded negatively on him to the point where AD Warde Manuel was effectively forced to go back on his word and fired Howard in March. In comes May, who won 126 games and averaged 21 wins in his six seasons at Florida Atlantic, which is outstanding considering the embarrassing lack of history and resources he embraced when he got that job in 2018. Michigan won out over Louisville and Vanderbilt for May’s services, and I’m ranking U-M higher than just about anyone because the transfer haul feels like an ideal combo of size, shooting, speed, athleticism and proven commodities.
Only one player followed May from FAU: center Vlad Goldin. He’ll play alongside Yale transfer Danny Wolf, who could wind up as one of the five best up-transfers in college hoops … if Goldin doesn’t rank ahead of him. Wolf can play the 3, 4 or 5 and is an A-level passer, screen-setter and space eater on the interior. Michigan also landed the underrated Sam Walters from Alabama, entering-his-prime Roddy Gayle Jr. from Ohio State, two-way competitor Rubin Jones from North Texas and sneaky-good 3-point contributor Tre Donaldson from Auburn. EvanMiya.com ranks Michigan’s transfer class No. 5, which I might argue is too low. Scottie Pippen’s son Justin is a freshman on this team, and the return of shooting guard Nimari Burnett and combo forward Will Tschetter should give May what he had at FAU: a roster that reliably is 10-deep and full of basketball-obsessed team players.
I’m always good (or bad) for a smattering of zesty prognostications, so here’s another. Boise State winning the Mountain West and becoming a top-20 crew feels as thrilling of a preseason call as almost any I’ve got listed. Leon Rice is over the moon at having a point guard who’s his ideal kind of floor general. His name is Alvaro Cardenas. He was an intra-conference foil for Rice; Cardenas played for Tim Miles at San Jose State and averaged 13.2 points, 5.5 assists and shot 39% from 3-point territory. And he should be the key to unlock Boise State’s latest NCAA Tournament team — and its first NCAA Tournament win in school history? We’ll see. No program has made more Big Dances without a victory than the Broncos (0-10).
BSU’s best player is Tyson Degenhart. One of many instances where a high-major player is playing for a team outside the power-conference structure. Degenhart, a 6-8 senior, is the most practical preseason pick for MW POY. He might average 20/night on his way to becoming an NBA pick in 2025. Degenhart will again suit up alongside O’Mar Stanley, an undersized 5 who nevertheless played his way onto the all-league second team last season. On first glance, Boise State’s roster doesn’t shout “best in the Mountain West,” but the buy-in at point guard and the physicality and versatility in the frontcourt has me believing in the Broncos.
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20. Indiana
How big of a step back was last season? Consider that Indiana State finished 38th at KenPom, while IU was all the way at 91 and well out of the NCAA Tournament conversation. Despite making the Big Dance in years 1 and 2, Mike Woodson enters Year 4 on uneasy ground after the frustrations that sprouted like weeds emerged a season ago. The Hoosiers shouldn’t even entertain outcomes that threaten Woodson’s job security, though, not with the roster he’s put together. IU brings back a 15-point-per-game guy in Malik Reneau (15.4 ppg), a 10.6 point-per-game vet in Trey Galloway, plus a likely sophomore burst from Mackenzie Mgbako (12.2 ppg).
The Hoosiers, operating with a healthy NIL budget, also recruited Oumar Ballo from Arizona and Myles Rice from Washington State (two top-100 players), in addition to some others, like Kanaan Carlyle, who I’m eager to see in new surroundings after a nondescript season at Stanford. The 3-point shooting (or lack thereof) is a glaring concern, but most everything else screams top-20 roster. Can IU do it? Can it finish as a top-25 team for the first time in almost a decade? I can’t shake the feeling this is going to be a noisy season (and that can be a good thing in many respects) for Woodson’s program. One major letdown is the nonconference schedule, which is sorely lacking in must-see matchups. It also will give Indiana a lot less slack come conference play if IU falls short of winning the Battle 4 Atlantis.
21. Iowa State
The Cyclones were unquestionably a top-10 team last season. The defense rated No. 1 at KenPom. The Clones destroyed inferior opponents on the regular and deserved a top seed instead of the No. 2 they got on Selection Sunday. That said, as I do every year (to varying results, yes!), I have to fade some teams in order to heavily buy in on some others in against-the-grain fashion. Mark me down for having ISU scootch back a bit in the bloated, beastly Big 12.
The starting five will be led by one of the best guards in the country, Tamin Lipsey, who should be much more respected and discussed — to the level he deserves — by the time we get to Christmas. Lipsey will be flanked in the backcourt by senior Keshon Gilbert, who led the team in usage last season and probably will again this year. T.J. Otzelberger also brings back one of the more promising sophomores in the Big 12, Milan Momcilovic, who will play the 3. In the frontcourt, Saint Mary’s transfer Joshua Jefferson and Charlotte newcomer Dishon Jackson will likely be starters. I’m wondering about the reliability up front, which is why I’ve opted to slightly sell on ISU’s outlook. Overall, there’s little question about this team’s NCAA chances and its defensive pedigree. They can win ugly, but few care about style when the Ws rack up. This school should be dancing for the fourth straight year which would mark only the second time in program history that’s happened.
22. Illinois
10, 23, 14, 4, 8, 6, 6, 20. That’s the final KenPom ranking for the No. 2 Big Ten over the past eight seasons. Illinois might be No. 2 this season, but it has been No. 2 (and sometimes No. 1) in the Big Ten over the past five seasons. Brad Underwood has a program humming, and that’s a fact because he’s made a habit of losing all-league guys and not falling too far behind. He’ll carry on without Terrence Shannon Jr., Coleman Hawkins, Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier, Dain Dainja and Luke Goode. That’s tons to overcome, but I have faith he’ll do it thanks to some stars in the making that should find new life in Champaign. It will start with a guy I’ve been told has been insanely good in practice: freshman lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis. The Lithuanian could be a 2025 lottery pick. He’ll join forces with Kylan Boswell, who averaged 9.6 points and 3.6 assists in a hot-and-cold two-year run with Arizona. Those two are the key, and they’ll have help from Ty Rodgers and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, both of whom need to emerge as more consistent contributors. Carey Booth is a fledgling talent who couldn’t get it going at Notre Dame. I like his chances to be a solid piece off the bench. Underwood also will bank on Ben Humrichous (14.7 ppg at Evansville) and Tre White (12.3 with Louisville) being minutes-eaters alongside two top-30 freshmen in 3-man Will Riley and 5 Morez Johnson. Illinois can be both the surprise and the reliable, pragmatic choice as a top-four finisher in the Big Ten.
23. Florida
The tempting sleeper in the SEC. Todd Golden’s Gators return three players (Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard in the backcourt, Alex Condon as a big) who averaged 20-plus minutes last season. They’ll all be starters alongside transfers Alijah Martin (FAU) and, most likely, Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State). Martin committing to UF was a big-time add; he’s an opportunistic scorer and is going to be one of the best man-to-man defenders in the SEC. With his Final Four pedigree, Martin figures to rise Florida’s floor. Sophomore forward Thomas Haugh has also made huge strides in the offseason and will be the sixth man at worst.
Clayton’s savvy playmaking ability will likely lead to him being a top-four lead guard in the SEC. He’s high-IQ, no doubt, and now the goal is to perk his 3-point accuracy from 36% and change to that ever-coveted 40% threshold. The Gators haven’t yet returned to that upper-echelon SEC program that they could claim for a good portion of Billy Donovan’s time, but Golden has the temperament and intellect to get there.
Surprising though it may seem, Kansas State is now one of the biggest players in the transfer market. That was proven when Jerome Tang’s program landed what’s acknowledged as the most expensive portal get of 2024: Coleman Hawkins. The price? North of $2 million. The longtime Illinois stretch 4 will need to be one of the 20-or-so best players in American to both validate his NIL tag and lift K-State to top-25 status. I believe he will, and that’s why I have the Wildcats ranked accordingly.
Tang also brought on Achor Achor from Samford, Dug McDaniel from Michigan, Ugonna Onyenso from Kentucky and Max Jones from Cal State Fullerton, where he quietly/reliably averaged 15.3 points. Villanova transfer Brendan Hausen also will play north of 20 minutes per night. It’s a big roster changeover, one of the starkest of any Power Five program that didn’t undergo a coaching flip in ’24. Tang was heavily courted by Arkansas but turned down the Razorbacks. He’s where he wants to be and no question has the talent to get back to the Big Dance after missing out last year.
Who amongst us can’t wait to see John Calipari’s final phase in Fayetteville? The Razorbacks’ new coach returns just one player from the Eric Musselman regime, but he’s a key one: Trevon Brazile. The stretchy 4-man opted to stick around for a rebuild that has some attention-grabbing parts.
DJ Wagner followed Calipari from Kentucky, as did Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivišić. The latter two will be complementary pieces who could shine from time to time, but it’s Wagner that seems to be the key. He took a backseat last season, despite starting, because of the dazzling play from Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. Those two are now in the NBA. Wagner hopes to be there a year from now, but the thing is, his style is close to Johnell Davis, who was an 18.2 ppg guy at FAU last season and is also on the Hogs’ roster. That duo needs to learn to play off each other to give Arkansas a shot at landing in the top four of the SEC. And that’s before taking into account that freshman Boogie Fland is also going to want the ball in his hands. Fland arrives alongside Karter Knox and Billy Richmond, all three switching allegiances from Kentucky shortly after Calipari fled for Hog heaven.
Defensively, the Razorbacks will be viable for one man above all others: Jonas Aidoo. The Tennessee transfer averaged 11.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and was subsequently feverishly recruited in the portal. The class ranked No. 6 in the sport, per EvanMiya.com. To the shock of nobody, Calipari has recruited an enviable cluster of talent. He will have to embrace some late-career reinventions in order to dodge the flare-up of disappointments that became toxic in Lexington. Whether he’s capable remains to be seen. But given who he convinced to follow him to Arkansas, this team has no excuse not to be one of the 30 best in college hoops.
26. Michigan State
The last time MSU had a seed better than No. 7 was 2019 (though it would have been either a No. 2 or No. 3 in 2020). We’re waiting on the return of vintage Michigan State. Will it happen in 2025? How many years does Tom Izzo still want to do this? Two more? Five? Whatever it is, I do expect Sparty to qualify for a 27th straight NCAA Tournament and for this team to be embedded in the strong and deep second tier in the Big Ten.
A lot of pieces return from a 20-15 squad that ranked top-20 at KenPom. In fact, MSU is pretty well-stocked, considering Tyson Walker, Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Mady Sissoko are all gone. Jeremy Fears, Jaden Akins (he’s the key) and Tre Holloman all return and will combo for a three-headed backcourt that I’d like to see push the issue a lot more than last season’s unhurried scheme. In the frontcourt, Coen Carr and Xavier Booker ready for their sophomore close-ups, and it sounds like Jaxon Kohler‘s role should spike.
The roster looks like one breakout candidate after another. Plus, a family tree has been planted. Jase Richardson, a freshman, is the son of a guy who carries a pretty great legacy in East Lansing: Jason Richardson. Good group. Given it’s Izzo, I openly admit to the very real possibility that I’ve under-ranked his group, I just want to see it come together before putting MSU into the top 25.
The best news here is Johni Broome has a real chance to challenge a rival player on a rival team, Alabama‘s Mark Sears, for SEC Player of the Year. Broome averaged 16.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 bpg and was a 55% shooter for a 27-win Auburn team that finished (HELLO!) fourth at KenPom. Yes: fourth — despite losing to Yale in the first round — the best finish in school history, even if the Big Dance result didn’t correlate. (Nugget: 2018 Virginia and 2016 Michigan State are the only other teams to ever lose in the first round and finish top-five at KenPom.)
Now Bruce Pearl has a group with sites set again on winning the SEC, though as you can see I’m a seller on that idea. Every year there are a few teams ranked in the preseason that prove to be overshots, and I’ll take a chance Auburn applies here. I already know the tut-tutting from Auburn fans is going to follow me well into the season. I’ve accepted it. For reasons hard to foresee, some teams just take steps back. Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones return, and those two should be double-digit scorers alongside Broome. Furman‘s JP Pegues, who dropped 18.4 a night last season, will also squeeze in here as a viable option in Pearl’s offense. The transfer class isn’t great, though: EvanMiya ranks this class 70th in the country and second-worst in the SEC, a league so stacked that surprise results are unavoidable. And given how good Auburn’s schedule is (Houston, the Maui Invitational, Duke, Ohio State, Purdue; it’s loaded) in the noncon, it’s going to take on some losses before what I think will be one of the toughest SEC slates in the conference.
Sean Miller instantly steered Xavier back toward its typical realm of success in his first season (a No. 3 seed and a Sweet 16 run), but last year was a humbling downgrade. X went 16-18 and battled health issues en route to a forgettable campaign. For Year 3, the Musketeers have some dark-horse potential in the Big East, even despite the loss of starting center Lassina Traore, who is already done for the year with a knee injury.
However, Zach Freemantle will be 24 years old and get a fully healthy final season, which should lead to him being among the best bigs in the Big East. Freemantle is, essentially, a returning starter. The only other player that’s true of is Dayvion McKnight. The fifth-year senior averaged 12.4 points, 4.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds and shot 37.2% on his 3s. Because Xavier was a non-factor, McKnight was probably one of the most underrated players in the Big East. He’ll shine. The Musketeers brought in Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell, who could be Souley Boum-esque in terms of his impact. Excellent shot-taker who averaged nearly 17 points for a witty Sycamores squad last season. Toledo transfer Dante Maddox Jr. is also in line to start, given his numbers last season (15.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 40.2 3-pt%). Given Miller’s coaching acumen and the fact there are 10 players on this roster who are juniors, seniors or fifth-year players, it would be a semi-stunner if X wasn’t easily in the NCAAs.
It’s wild times at Memphis these days, which is to say: everything’s normal. Penny Hardaway’s program is under NCAA investigation again, it’s unclear what said investigation will lead to, and it’s undetermined if Hardaway’s actually on the hot seat or not. He made unusual late-offseason staff changes.
The Tigers missed the NCAAs in March. Fan engagement is spotty, due in part to school administrators passing on an opportunity to leave the American for the Pac-12. (For now?) This is not a well-run outfit at present. But what about the basketball players? With Houston out of the conference, Memphis is the king of the league and is my pick to be the AAC’s best — despite losing five key pieces.
Hardaway’s most important add would seem to be Tyrese Hunter, the former Iowa State and Texas point guard who is a reliable jump shot and two inches away from being an NBA Draft pick. He’s going to team up with Tulsa transfer and top-shelf scorer PJ Haggerty. The frontcourt will feature a familiar name: Moussa Cisse is boomeranging back to the Tigers for his final season; he’s a great rim protector and should help with Memphis’ signature defensive edge. Dain Dainja comes by way of Illinois. I think he’s a great get. The champion of the American should be a top-30 team. Based on talent, Memphis is the logical pick.
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire
The Bearcats will break through in Year 4 of Wes Miller’s regime and make the NCAAs, ending a drought that dates back to 2019. Miller’s team finished 39th at KenPom last season; a noticeable bump up is in order yet again. UC fans’ patience will be rewarded. Miller has the benefit of returning enough above-average pieces to be a feisty team in the thick Big 12.
There is no outright star here, but then again, that’s the Cincinnati way more often than not. Jizzle James‘ breakout sophomore season is an expectation; the physical combo guard needs to make a jump to justify this ranking. But bringing back Day Day Thomas and Dan Skillings Jr. in the backcourt is just as important for the objectives in Cincy. Their style contrasted against Aziz Bandaogo‘s standout defense — he will be featured in the middle — is going to give the Bearcats some matchup advantages. Bandaogo will be assisted by Simas Lukosius, who can roam on the wing as one of the more dependable 6-8 3-point shooters in the league. The intriguing name is Dillon Mitchell, who is using his last year of eligibility and figures to start at the 4. BYU was the surprise metrics darling in the Big 12 last season. I sense UC could be that team in ’24-25.
Some might have expected the Red Raiders to drift into obscurity after the short-lived, disastrous end to the Mark Adams era. Not at all. Grant McCasland was the right guy at the right time. TTU went 23-11 and got a 6-seed in 2024 — doing so with an offense-first philosophy. It should be in that ballpark again in 2025.
Two critical transfers to know: PG Elijah Hawkins (Minnesota) and JT Toppin (New Mexico). Hawkins was one of the best pure distributors in college hoops as a Gopher. Toppin is a bouncy wing that does a little bit of everything and broke Lobo hearts when he left ABQ. Adding those two in with three guys back (Darrion Williams, Chance McMillian, Kerwin Walton) who combined to average 30-plus points gives the Red Raiders a sleeper’s chance at being a Big 12 contender. Devan Cambridge is also back, and on his way to being healthy. A lot of promise with this team.
32. Virginia
(NOTE: This ranking and capsule were published hours before Tony Bennett’s retirement was publicly disclosed. Virginia’s slot will remain the same for official purposes, but had I known UVa would not have Bennett on the sidelines, I realistically would have put the Cavs much lower in my rankings.)
The Wahoos have made all but two NCAA tourneys since 2012, and I’m confident that broad track of success continues in 2025. But it’s time for UVa to get back to making its mark in March; the program’s last Big Dance victory was against Texas Tech in the 2019 title game. Last season, Virginia was a no-show vs. Colorado State in the First Four.
Losing Ryan Dunn and Reece Beekman early to the NBA (borderline priceless defenders) drops the Cavs’ ceiling and essentially forces them out of top-25 consideration heading into November. Virginia brings back shooting guard Isaac McKneely and his reassuring 44.5% 3-point accuracy. Big man Blake Buchanan is situated for a breakout year and he’s not going to be the only one in Charlottesville. The portal add who could be requisite to Virginia finishing in the top five of the ACC is a guy who was in the league last season, but barely made a mark. TJ Power opted out of Duke, knowing full well just how much talent was coming in. At Virginia he can become one of the breakout sophomores, provided he’s bought into the program’s defensive requirements.
Anthony Grant is 135-55 in his last six seasons at UD, equating to a magnificent .711 winning percentage, the best in the Atlantic 10 in that span and one of the 15 best of any men’s Division I coach. It’s for that reason, above all others, that I will again forecast Dayton as the best team in the conference. The Flyers are the most consistent team in that league. There are some lowered expectations because of the loss of DaRon Holmes II, but UD fans have seen their team overcome significant losses of NBA-level talent before. Thankfully, Malachi Smith‘s return from injury should inject renewed optimism in Dayton, going along with the return of preseason A-10 first-teamer Nate Santos. Santos, Enoch Cheeks and Javon Bennett are the support columns, but it’s the transfers that make me all in on Dayton’s return to the Big Dance. (UD is coming off an NCAA appearance as a No. 7 seed, which included a win over Nevada in the first round.) The Flyers brought in former Ohio State big man Zed Key and well-traveled defensive specialist Posh Alexander, who are both old enough to be voting in a second presidential election. How a coach schedules tells me how confident he is in his team. UD is not only going to Maui, but Grant also has Marquette, UNLV, Cincinnati and Northwestern on the schedule. These guys might not be as good as last season, but I think they’ll be relatively close.
What encore is in store for the team that made its first Elite Eight in 44 years? The Tigers have a healthy chance at a fifth NCAA Tournament push under Brad Brownell (and it would be the first time ever under him that Clemson made back-to-back Big Dances) with the return of Chase Hunter at combo guard and power forward Ian Schieffelin.
Had PJ Hall come back, Clemson would have easily been a preseason AP Top 25 team. Without him, they’ll look to make up some ground and can get their bona fides on defense with Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin. The Tigers will rely on Jaeden Zackery (11.2 ppg, 4.3 apg at Boston College) to be the primary 1-man. If he’s efficient, Clemson can hope to be in the realm of last season’s 117.7 adjusted offensive efficiency rating (per KenPom), a program-best number. I think the Tigers are a moving target in the ACC but am willing to give Brownell the benefit of the doubt and buy in on continued success and a top-five league finish for the fourth time in five seasons..
James Snook / USATSI
Randy Bennett’s Gaels have won 26 or 27 games in four of the past five seasons, with the COVID-affected 2020-21 campaign being the exception. It’s fair to brace for a little step back here, as Aidan Mahaney left for UConn and Alex Ducas graduated. Josh Jefferson also decided to portal it out of there.
I love that Mitchell Saxen is here again for a fifth and final season, though. I’d rank him among the 15 best bigs in the sport. With Saxen and the 7-1 Harry Wessels making life hell in the paint, Saint Mary’s is again going to be rugged and not to be trifled with on defense. And sure, the Aussie pipeline is still flowing into Moraga, California, but Bennett’s also added a couple of Lithuanians to boot. Had Mahaney stayed it would’ve benefited the program, but SMC fans know that Augustas Marciulionis was the team’s better floor general anyway. He’s back for a senior season on a squad that is again going to firmly be No. 2 in the WCC behind Gonzaga.
Oh, nothing. It’s only the most anticipated season in Rutgers history. Steve Pikiell and his assistant, Brandin Knight, diligently worked for years to recruit two blue-chip studs — Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey — and here they are. Yes, Rutgers will suit up quite possibly two future top-five NBA Draft picks.
This is going to be fascinating, to say the least. Harper will run the offense; he’s the younger brother of Ron Harper Jr., who is one of the best players in program history. Bailey is a bouncy wing who might be the most athletic freshman in the country.
Those two won’t explicitly be tasked with being the leaders of this team, but from the outside in, that’s how it will be viewed. Harper and Bailey all but guarantee a big jump from last year’s putrid offense, which ranked 295th at KenPom. Harper gets the benefit of starting beside Jeremiah Williams, who started 11 of his 12 games last season after returning from injury. No one’s quite sure how this is going to go, and questions loom with RU’s interior defense, but few teams in ’24-25 will rank as high in watchability as the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. What a world. I like this world!
The Aztecs get a top-40 designation from me due to coaching stability and proven culture. This program lost a LOT from 2023-24: Jaedon LeDee (that one’s gonna leave a mark), Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, Darrion Trammell. The best returnee is Reese Waters (9.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg).
A year ago, nobody had LeDee as a top-20 player in the country, but that’s precisely what he became. Can Waters make a jump that’s in that ballpark? He’ll get help with Miles Byrd, a stretchy wing who symbolizes a lot of what makes SDSU’s defense so firm year in, year out. One new name to know is former FAU guard Nick Boyd, who has a swagger on the court that will fit right in with Brian Dutcher’s program. Boyd might be good for a couple of 25-point nights, and in turn, could improve the Aztecs’ chances at winning yet another Mountain West title.
The MW will soon degrade, due to SDSU leaving alongside a few other teams. In these next two years, it should be a compelling battle for supremacy before this league is subdued — so soon after its best season in history.
With a workable troop of fourth- and fifth-year players, plus the arrival of a five-star big man, the Terrapins can course-correct in a big way from last season’s letdown. Kevin Willard’s team was a confounding 16-17, done in by awful 3-point shooting and a stagnant offense. Look for that to change due to the arrival of Belmont transfer Ja’Kobe Gillespie (38.7% from beyond the arc) and South Florida import Selton Miguel (39%).
Maryland lost Donta Scott and Jahmri Young, but Julian Reese is back in the frontcourt and will play the 4 alongside freshman center and local high school hero Derik Queen, who ranked 12th in the Class of 2024 according to 247Sports. Reese’s defense should help Maryland rank well nationally in efficiency. I don’t know if Queen will be high-impact in the first six weeks of the season, but I think he rounds into form by February and gets Maryland firmly into the bubble mix.
The Longhorns’ shift into the SEC (this feels like it’s going to take some getting used to) is going to coincide with a big shift in the roster. A lot of old hands are no longer wearing burnt orange: Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell, even Brock Cunningham (gone already? I jest) have moved on. That equates to 80% of the team’s minutes flipping for the season ahead.
Rodney Terry essentially has a rebuild on his hands, but at least he’s got a terrific freshman wing in Tre Johnson to do it with. Johnson is the sleeper pick to be the nation’s best freshman. Ranked sixth overall in the class, he was a big-gulp scorer as a prospect and figures to have a lot of touches on a team that will be looking for guys to step up on offense. Johnson figures to start alongside four other guys who are all much older and seniors/fifth-year players.
Kadin Shedrick is the most important returning UT player; he’ll hold down the 5. Arthur Kaluma is in Austin to chase the NCAA Tournament after missing out last year at Kansas State. Tramon Mark is back in the state after a one-year detour with Arkansas. Look for him to be critical as a leader for Terry’s team, which has some interesting pieces. I can see a way for Texas to make hay in the new-look SEC, but it’s likely going to be in the bubble mix come March.
40. Pitt
It’s hard to catapult season-ending momentum into the following campaign, but let’s see if Pitt can do it. I like the Panthers to be a bubble team after missing out (narrowly) on the NCAAs last season following a 10-3 finish and a 22-11 record.
Jeff Capel is now in Year 7, with one NCAA trip in the first six. Pitt’s AD was unexpectedly let go this offseason, which could put Capel’s job at risk if he severely underachieves, but I like this team to comfortably finish in the top half of the ACC and make the Big Dance. The Panthers have somewhat quietly moved into second-tier status in the ACC in the past couple of years. Will this group keep that going? The roster suggests a competitive team with a reasonable shot at winning north of 20 games again. Ishmael Leggett is a key player back, as is Jaland Lowe, who will be a pop guy in 2024-25, especially after Bub Carrington’s meteoric rise to one-and-done NBA Draft lottery pick. Lowe could follow Carrington’s course in 2025, honestly. Blake Hinson also no longer being here also dings Pitt a bit, but, but, but: The Panthers return four of their top six scorers, which is about as good of a situation as you can ask for at a high-major school that didn’t make the tournament.
If you missed Jackson Shelstad‘s freshman year, don’t make a similar mistake this upcoming season. Shelstad (12.8 ppg) is probably among the 10 best sophomores in the sport, and he’ll have a shot at being a first- or second-team guy in the Big Ten. (Still feels weird to type it, let alone read it.) Dana Altman was hoping to win an NCAA appeal to get one more season with N’Faly Dante, but that didn’t happen.
Who’s the big man to step up now? Senior Nathan Bittle, who will have to pop his 10.0 points/4.4 rebounds line from last season. After a one-year East Coast junket at Villanova, former Washington State wing TJ Bamba has returned West to suit up as a Duck. I suspect he’ll get north of 320 shots in 30-plus games. This is Dana Altman’s 15th season in Eugene. The previous 14 featured 20 wins or more. In fact, Altman’s coached 27 consecutive years above .500. Oregon might have question marks, but the track record mandates putting the Ducks comfortably in the top 50.
I was absurdly high on the Aggies last season (we’re talking irrationally high), only to see Buzz Williams’ team pretty much perform where most others thought they’d be. A 21-15 record and a No. 9 seed. So: they were solidly solid, but a few matters short of pretty good.
Will this group be more consistent? Wade Taylor IV returns for his senior season, and after averaging 19.1 points in 2023-24 (fourth-best in the SEC), he’s got a chance to be No. 1 in the conference. A lot will filter down from Taylor’s production. Fellow senior backcourt mate Manny Obaseki will be inserted into the starting lineup full time, getting that promotion along with another semi-starter from last season, Jace Carter on the wing. My concern with ranking A&M higher is tied to the reality that Williams is yet to have a quality shooting team in his five seasons with the program. Every one he’s had has rated outside the top 150 in 2- and 3-point percentage, many outside the top 200. Until that changes, A&M is going to have a limit on its proficiency and efficiency inside the SEC and out.
After losing out to Duke in the high-stakes dual recruitment of Cameron and Cayden Boozer (who will be in college in 2025), Jim Larrañaga now focuses most of his energy on reversing the bad vibes that concluded Miami’s 2023-24 season, an unspeakable 10-game nightmare that rendered the Canes irrelevant at 15-17.
Nijel Pack and Matthew Cleveland decided to stay in Coral Gables, Florida, and that will prove vital to Miami’s chances to be a bubble team in the ACC. The Hurricanes lost a lot from last season’s team, but those two were the ones they couldn’t afford to see leave. Cleveland and Pack joining forces with a fun freshman, shooting guard Jalil Bethea, in addition to Stetson transfer Jalen Blackmon (who had the game of his life in the ASUN title game, erupting for 43 points and getting the Hatters into the field of 68) will ensure this squad is potent and powerful in shot selection and creation. Few teams underachieved harder relative to the talent on the roster than The U a season ago. I can’t see Larrañaga standing for that again. It might not be as good as Miami’s football team in 2024, but The U will be back in the better half of the ACC.
What a highly unusual situation in Columbus. Chris Holtmann was fired on Valentine’s Day and everyone presumed the Buckeyes would chase, and land, a buzzy name. (Dusty May was the presumed initial target.) But Jake Diebler went from interim to full-time coach, thanks to going 8-3 after moving over a seat.
Diebler has done well in his first season in terms of roster assembly. Most importantly, Bruce Thornton stuck around for one more season with the Bucks. I think he’s got a great chance to be a top-five player in the Big Ten. He’ll team up with boomerang transfer Meechie Johnson, who is back in an OSU uni after two years with South Carolina. Diebler recruited two former five-star prospects who didn’t pan out at the blue-blood level: Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky). They’re likely to start with another transfer, an understated team guy, Micah Parrish of San Diego State, who will be a utility guy to say the least. Not having Taison Chatman (torn ACL) will ding Ohio State’s depth in the backcourt, unless 6-foot freshman Juni Mobley emerges as one of the best 3-point shooters in the Big Ten with haste. Diebler as a head coach of a high-major with no experience other than February and March’s abbreviated trial run will make this a TBD season. But the talent should have OSU a bubble team at minimum.
A year ago, I aggressively placed Georgia in the top 50 of my rankings, which I’m brave enough to admit was a fatuous mistake. This season, it’s not such a fable. The Bulldogs fully expect to be competitive and in the top half of the SEC, thanks above all to anticipated reforms with the team’s rebounding. (It’s been baaaaaad.)
Mike White has two players back who will be starters in Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain. Demary really might be the most undervalued player in the SEC. Also key: White has a freshman in Asa Newell who is the most talented newbie to come onto that campus (for basketball, anyway) since Anthony Edwards. Newell’s game is nothing like Edwards, however. He’s lean, stands approximately 6-10, can step out and shoot and plays with a good head on his shoulders. He’ll need to be a top-10 freshman in the country to validate my UGA ranking, and I think he’s gonna pull it off. Look for Demary to step up and be one of the best defenders in the SEC — with backup De’Shayne Montgomery not that far behind. Tyrin Lawrence (via Vandy) and RJ Godfrey (via Clemson) should round out the starting five.
Kim English is on a mission to not put PC in the position it was last season, when spotty metrics results wound up holding the Friars outside the velvet rope to get into the NCAAs. That team won 21 games and did so without Bryce Hopkins (while Devin Carter turned into the Big East Player of the Year). Hopkins is back, however, and approaching 100% status after tearing his left ACL. Look for the combo forward to increase his previous Friar averages of 15.6 ppg and 8.6 rebounds, and in the process, potentially become the most valuable player on a Big East roster.
English dipped into the portal and added Bensley Joseph (Miami), Wesley Cardet Jr. (Chicago State) and Christ Essandoko (Saint Joe’s) to help out returning guard Jayden Pierre (9.5 ppg). With Josh Oduro now in the NBA, watch Oswin Erhunmwunse step in and patrol the paint. Every year when I build out this list, there are invariably a half-dozen power-conference teams that feel like their range could be anywhere from No. 30 to No. 70. Providence is one of those teams this year.
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The Lobos were laughably only put into the Big Dance last season because they won the Mountain West tourney title after an enthralling run that included five wins in the final six games prior to March Madness. UNM’s inclusion gave the Mountain West a conference-record six bids.
This team probably can’t match the firepower and athleticism of that one, but it can best it in tenacity and resourcefulness. Much of that will spring from junior guard Donovan Dent, one of the best players in the Mountain West. Dent, whose gumption is on display multiple times a night, averaged 14.1 points and figures to up that number in 2024-25. He’ll have returning C Nelly Junior Joseph starting with him, giving Richard Pitino’s team a couple of go-to guys in very different positions. I have to ding UNM for the losses of Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and JT Toppin, but the program’s arrow has been going in the good direction since Pitino arrived three years ago and doesn’t seem likely to go crooked over the next six months.
It’s time for the Braves to ascend to the top of the Missouri Valley — and become one of the best mid-major teams in the process. Brian Wardle, in this his 10th season in Peoria, Illinois, has his best team. And consider: Bradley ranked 64th at KenPom last season.
Thanks to returning much of his roster (led by point guard Duke Deen and 5-man Darrius Hannah), Wardle can rely on veteran experience and a locker room with great chemistry. The Braves have to overcome losing their leading scorer (Connor Hickman) and best defender (Malevy Lyons), but seem to have most boxes checked for a mid-major darling. Great size, culture established, good guard play, capable 3-point shooting. The Braves have two MVC tourney championships under Wardle but just one NCAA appearance because 2020 was ripped away. Drake had been the Cinderella candidate in the Valley in recent years, and now Bradley should take that mantle.
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The Blazers are equipped with four returning starters from a 23-win team. If Memphis doesn’t wind up as the best team in the AAC, UAB (officially the preseason league favorite) is the obvious candidate to take the top slot.
Any team that deploys a man in the middle with the first name Yaxel and a pesky guard nicknamed “Butta” figures to be set up for a certain level of success, deemed necessary by the basketball gods. Yaxel Lendeborg is a 6-9 hoss — a senior center who will threaten to finish with 25 double-doubles. Butta Johnson is a bit of a dynamo who should see his shot opportunities improve playing next to underrated Georgia Southern transfer Tyren Moore. UAB will be a problem in the American because Lendeborg is complemented by Christian Coleman, a power forward with a tough nose around the rim. Kennedy knows his team’s defensive issues last season sold them short. We should expect a more well-rounded squad in Birmingham.
Everyone knows the deal on the Main Line. Kyle Neptune needs to make the NCAA Tournament in order to get to a fourth year with Nova. The program has quickly gone from a rock-solid top-10 reputation to confounding disappointment over the past two seasons. Now the Cats ready for a campaign with only seven players holding D-I experience.
Five of those seven, at least, are 21, 22 or 23 years old. Eric Dixon opted to stay, and that might be the thing that saves VU and keeps them competitive in the Big East. He and Jordan Longino will be the team’s leaders, while Wooga Poplar (via Miami) was the Big Transfer Get that Nova desperately needed in the back end of the portal cycle. Villanova hasn’t missed the NCAAs three years in a row since Jay Wright’s first three on the Main Line (2002-04). In order to avoid that in 2025, Neptune’s going to have to overachieve with a roster that ranks well outside the top five of the Big East. A program under pressure that has responded well in previous iterations. What will this one do?
If you’re outside the top 50 you probably aren’t in as a bubble team come March, but I think BU is one of the best sleeper NCAA candidates out there. Thad Matta’s toiled a bit for two years in Indy, yes, however his coaching acumen can’t be questioned.
By bringing back much of the roster from an 18-win team, the expectation should be to hit 20 victories. The two biggest names still here are G/F Pierre Brooks and F Jahmyl Telfort. They’ll be wonderful on a team that should move into the top 50 of offensive efficiency. I do wonder about the defensive integrity and the lack of higher-end athletes. Tulane transfer Kolby King is a guy who will also emerge here, but needs to beef up into a strong two-way player to bolster the loss of Posh Alexander.
A veritable mid-major beast these days. Bryce Drew’s program is coming off a first-round upset of Saint Mary’s in the 5/12 game, giving GCU a program-record 30th win in the process. The Antelopes were 65th in my rankings a year ago, which proved too low. I’m bumping ’em up that much more heading into November.
Four starters return, led by Tyon Grant-Foster, a 20-point-per-game guard who is one of the three-or-so most talented mid-major players in the sport. If bringing back a healthy portion of the team’s scoring and minutes wasn’t enough to convince you this team can win another NCAA Tournament game, know that TCU transfer JaKobe Coles and his 42% 3-point accuracy is also in the mix here. The Lopes are overwhelming WAC favorites yet again before the program moves on to the WCC next year.
Non-Rambler fans, If I ask you what this team’s win total was last season, you think you can guess it within two spots? Loyola Chicago went 23-10 in a critical bounce-back campaign after the disastrous 10-win season the year prior.
For as good and improved as LUC was last season, the program sure didn’t seem like it received a fair amount of attention and publicity. Drew Valentine will need to have another 20-win season to get his flowers, and I’m here to project he will. Three starters are back at a program that retained five rotation players in all and should have the makings of a top-40 per-possession defense.
Miles Rubin averaged just 6.2 points, but I don’t know how many players who didn’t score 10 per game were more valuable, at least at the mid-major level, than him. He set the program record with 76 blocks in a season. Rubin, Des Watson (high-end A-10 player) and Jayden Dawson will be the triumvirate taking on a not-so-mysterious-but-still-sorta-unpredictable top third of the Atlantic 10. The Ramblers upgraded to this conference from the MVC two years ago. This is the season they show they made the right decision.
Here’s a big swing. It was a slog in Year 1 under Micah Shrewsberry, as anticipated, but I’m tagging the Irish to be one of the more surprising high-majors in the months ahead. Shrews was able to retain four starters, the most important being point guard Markus Burton (17.5 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.3 rpg at 5-foot-11). Burton gets to play beside a utilitarian transfer who should fit like a glove: Princeton guard Matt Allocco. ND brings back guys who don’t have big Q scores but are highly valued on that campus: Tae Davis, Braeden Shrewsberry and J.R. Konieczny. The Irish are going to punch above their weight and steal a few games as a home underdog. The program’s been on fire recently with some big-time recruiting wins. Notre Dame will likely be a projected NCAA team a year from now, but in this bridge season I like Shrewsberry’s crew to go from 13 wins to at least five more than that in ’24-25.
With all due respect to the predictive metrics out there and how they’re formulated and calculated, the Bulls team I saw last season looked better than the one listed online. USF ranked 87th at KenPom, 84th at Torvik, 78th at EvanMiya and 91st at BPI. I’m not going to say USF was a top-60 team last season, because the data’s in and the data across different algorithms is correct.
However, if you watched USF occasionally and saw how that fan base was reinvigorated, how well-coached it was under Amir Abdur-Rahim and its new life as a 25-win team, you saw top-50 aura. Despite Abdur-Rahim not taking a bigger job after just one year, but losing vital pieces regardless, I’m buying in with the Bulls. I think they play their way to a second consecutive 20-win season. I think they build on a fun story in Tampa. I think they do it behind lead guard Jayden Reid. He’s an easy candidate for AAC POY consideration, and he’ll likely be tasked with a lot after USF got poached in the portal. Reid has Brandon Stroud and Kobe Knox flanking him, giving the Bulls the uncommon situation of coming off a good year with returning pieces, but likely being underrated. (Except here, of course.)
USF has a good policy in place: replace the departing coach with the best-qualified in-house candidate. It did this in 2019 when Kyle Smith left and Todd Golden scooted a seat over. Then, when Golden took the Florida job in 2022, Chris Gerlufsen was promoted from within. Since then, the Dons have gone 43-25 and maintained top-four status in the WCC, which is where they’ll be again for the next five months. Gerlufsen is fortunate to return four high-leverage players from last season’s 23-11 team: Marcus Williams, Malik Thomas and Ndewedo Newbury (all seniors), plus sophomore combo guard (and somewhat rare non-Gonzaga WCC freshman of the year winner) Ryan Beasley. This team wasn’t free throw-prone a season ago, something that should change for the better. A nice offense is likely to upgrade to a good one, and the defense can again be top-60 in the nation. That will lay the course for USF’s inside track to third place in the WCC behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
What Will Wade did to change the situation in mere months’ time in Lake Charles, Louisiana, is outrageous. McNeese won 30 games last year and finished 67th at KenPom, by far its best ever. Prior to 2023-24, McNeese’s average KenPom finish in its history was 257th; the Cowboys finished between 276 and 335 in the 11 preceding years. Then Wade arrives and all the suck and ineptitude is vaporized out of the program.
McNeese had a 19-game turnaround, tying an NCAA record. And remember, Wade had to sit for the opening stretch of last season because of suspension. Of course, he’s only there because of the NCAA violations and stain from his LSU days, but regardless, this is now a low-major monster. McNeese will rule the Southland with ease again. Look for Christian Shumate (awesome two-way player), Ole Miss transfer Brandon Murray and Saint Louis transfer Sincere Parker to guide the Cowboys to at least 25 wins again.
THE story with Wisconsin is how it fares after being brutalized by the portal (“portalized”?) after being upset as a 5-seed in the first round by James Madison. The Badgers watched Chucky Hepburn (Louisville), AJ Storr (Kansas) and Connor Essegian (Nebraska) walk away, dropping their ceiling in the process.
This is a program that’s held a lot of stability in roster retention — doing so against the currents of the sport — but this year was different. At least Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit and John Blackwell stuck around. (Tyler Wahl graduated, alas.) There can be good portal news, though: John Tonje was a non-factor at Mizzou last year because of injury, but it wouldn’t stun me at all if he was a double-double guy in his final college season. Greg Gard has a big task ahead in what seems fated to have Wisconsin floating in the middle of a boggy Big Ten.
One of about five teams in the ACC that I think has the capacity to finish as high as seventh and as low as 15th. It’s just so tough to tell in this first year of overwrought high-major expansion. The Orange bring back JJ Starling, who’s a lot of fun and should be in striking distance of averaging 17 points.
Eddie Lampkin (previously of TCU and Colorado renown) will pay rent on the low block for his final year of eligibility. Junior wing Chris Bell (41.7% from 3-point land) is underrated and may unlock this team’s ceiling. Hofstra transfer Jaquan Carlos is also getting some buzz in the preseason, so we’re on the lookout for him. I like the Orange to finish top 10 in the ACC, but it could be a bumpy route to the finish. Consider how Red Autry won 20 games in his debut season. SU should be in that range again.
This is a respectable jump from last season’s Mississippi debut for Chris Beard, which included 20 wins (good) but also had the Rebels finish 79th at Torvik and 86th at KenPom (not good). The Rebels return PG Jaylen Murray and combo guard Matthew Murrell, in addition to 6-8 wing Jaemyn Brakefield.
The defense was barely adequate at times, and now Jamarion Sharp, Moussa Cisse and Allen Flanigan have moved on. Can the group be collectively better? How will the scheme change? There’s a lot to prove in the frontcourt. I’ve got some reservations over Beard getting this new roster (which includes four senior transfers, led by Sean Pedulla and Dre Davis) to be good enough on defense to make the NCAA Tournament. But the scoring capability will likely lead to some barn-burning atmospheres every month.
Someone’s going to surprise in the Big 12. Why not the Knights? Johnny Dawkins’ team had three eyebrow-raising wins last season (Kansas, at Texas and at TCU), which has me thinking this program could be in for more party spoiling. Because UCF isn’t appointment TV, it has one of the most unheralded (but reliable) duos in high-major ball.
Watch out for guards Jaylin Sellers and Darius Johnson. They combined to average 31 points last season and could hit the 35 mark this season. The strange thing here is there’s a bunch of guys on this roster who back stories that are longer than novellas (Mikey Williams, Dior Johnson, Benny Williams), but if the chemistry is in line, UCF will have top-half-of-the-league talent in the Big 12. And should the defense again rate top-30, like last year, then this outlook won’t be bullish.
Wolf Pack fans found me with a quickness a year ago when I stupidly neglected to include Nevada in my top 101. (Steve Alford’s team was soundly in the top 60 of all metrics at year’s end.) No such mistake this year.
This is easily a top-70 roster. Alford is running it back with his three best at the 3, 4 and 5: Tre Coleman, Nick Davidson and KJ Hymes. Not many teams are able to claim the same. Look for Nevada to be in the thick of the NCAA convo because of its size and know-how. The backcourt of Tyler Rolison (big-time role increase) and Kobe Sanders (Cal Poly transfer) might take a little time to jell, but so long as they’re counterplaying off the gravity from the aforementioned frontcourt, Rolison and Sanders are going to have a lot of chances to capitalize with the spacing provided in Alford’s system.
If not for super-senior guard Max Shulga, the Rams would be about two dozen spots further down on this list. Shulga, who has spent his career with coach Ryan Odom, had a few weeks over the spring where he opted for a future at Villanova. But after careful consideration, he doubled back to Richmond and will be the focal point on one of the best teams in the A-10.
Putting it plainly: VCU has valid NCAA hopes because Shulga’s here. As a career 40% 3-point shooter, his leadership by example will be vital. Remember, the Rams went 24-14 last season and would have made the NCAA Tournament had they not stubbed their toe in the conference title game against Duquesne. Odom brings back three starters (Shulga, Joe Bamisile, Zeb Jackson) who also led the team in scoring, giving this group a realistic chance not just at winning the A-10, but at making up ground in the nonconference, where games and scheduling never come easy for VCU.
I count no more than three programs, max, that will have to overcome the loss of a player the way Northwestern will with Boo Buie, who graduated as NU’s all-time leading scorer. That aside, times are pretty sweet now in Evanston, Illinois.
Chris Collins guided the team to a second straight NCAA Tournament bid, which was previously considered a fantasy for a school with just three of those in its history. NU will drag some higher-end Big Ten teams into escape room-type scenarios at Welsh-Ryan Arena, where it’s had a handful of loud upset wins over ranked opponents in recent seasons. Key names back: Brooks Barnhizer, Ty Berry, Nick Martinelli. Barnhizer is quite the well-rounded player, especially when you consider how much time he spends on the floor (more than 90% of minutes last season) without having noticeable efficiency drop-offs.
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Chris Jans is the only coach in Bulldogs history to make the NCAAs in his first two seasons. (He’s the only coach to reach the Big Dance in Year 1, too.) It’s been a really good fit from the get-go in Starkville. The Bulldogs do have quite the makeover, bringing aboard six transfers and two freshmen. The best player back is one of the best sophomores in college basketball. Josh Hubbard averaged 17.1 points as a 5-9 combo guard in a defense-leaning scheme. Can’t wait to see how he follows up a delectable debut season. Hubbard is the guy on offense, while Cameron Matthews is the platonic ideal of a switchable 6-7 defender.
MSU figures to rank top-30 in defensive efficiency behind the captaincy of Matthews, who will be in the mix for SEC Defensive Player of the Year. I presume I’ll be lower on the Bulldogs than other preseason rankings. It’s not about Jans. Instead, it’s more due to the very likely scenario the SEC is a top-two league, in addition to my wait-and-see approach on the portal compilation in Starkville, which needs to prove its offensive capacity.
Most everyone (yep, yours truly included) was wrong a year ago when BYU was projected in the bottom half of the Big 12, only to see Mark Pope win 23 games and finish in the top 20 in advanced-metrics rankings. Now Pope is at Kentucky and Kevin Young — a longtime NBA assistant, most recently with the Suns — has made the pivot to the college game.
This will be one fascinating experiment, as Young is going to try to NBA-ify the Cougs while also adhering to certain structure and schemes fitted for college. Fortunately for Young, he was able to retain Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Fousseyni Traore and Richie Saunders, all of whom could have left but chose to keep on with BYU’s unique culture. It’s likely to be bumpy in Year 1, but the vision is to fund BYU and turn it into one of the top four programs in the Big 12 by the end of the decade. (Case in point: The Cougars are a major player for the top prospect in the country, AJ Dybantsa.) Young might pull a Pope and wildly overshoot expectations again, but I’ll give the Coogs plenty of slack in his first season.
What the Wolfpack did in March/April amounted to the most statistically improbable Final Four run ever. From trailing putrid Louisville in the first half of the first game of the ACC tourney to winning nine straight (which had never been done before) and making history in reaching the Final Four.
Will there be a hangover in Raleigh? DJ Burns, Casey Morsell and DJ Horne won’t be there to experience it. Kevin Keatts returns Jayden Taylor, Michael O’Connell and Ben Middlebrooks. Louisville transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield will step in and play the 4 and/or the 5 and probably be ecstatic to be in new surroundings. Last season’s team found a way to scout effectively, capitalize on mismatches (a lot of this was Burns) and never take stretches off in games. It will need to do this to maximum effect in order to get back to the NCAAs.
Ohio is blessed to bring back six of its top eight players from last season. Senior guard Shereef Mitchell is the latest sturdy captain in the backcourt. Combo forward AJ Clayton is one of the best 3-point-shooting frontcourt players at his level. He hit 40.1% of his triples a season ago. It’s the MAC, so the league tournament is far from fair to the top seed, but it’s probably rational to expect one of Akron, Ohio or Toledo to wind up winning the conference. With Akron losing too much firepower from a 24-win team and Toledo rebuilding half its roster, Jeff Boals’ Bobcats are my pick to emerge as the top squad in a quintessential mid-major league.
The Shockers were merely 15-19 a season ago, but it was Paul Mills’ first season on the job after doing a wonderful six-year stay with Oral Roberts. Mills brings back five of his top seven minutes-getters, which should convey an above-.500 season. Wichita State figures to get consistent scoring from guards Xavier Bell and Harlond Beverly, who lead a group that’s old-old. A lot of teams in this sport are veteran-capped, given this is the final year of the COVID bonus year, but Wichita State’s projected starting five will rank near the top in experience.
All five are fourth- and fifth-year players, and Mills will have three more battle-scarred seniors readily available off the bench. Projecting WSU as a top-75 team is a dart in the dark, but the program has the players and figures to have the coaching. Beyond that, the American Athletic Conference on average is able to put four teams into the top 75. Let’s give ’em a shot.
The Red Wolves should supplant James Madison as the premier team in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State was so feared that Memphis and Alabama were the only two schools from high-major and/or multi-bid leagues this past offseason that agreed to play Bryan Hodgson’s team.
Hodgson, a second-year coach, has done an outstanding job after spending eight years learning under Nate Oats. Three starters return from the program’s second 20-win season since 1998. (A young Grant McCasland was responsible for the other one in 2017.) Taryn Todd and Derrian Ford are the notable guys back, but the spark plug should be Louisiana transfer Kobe Julien, who averaged 17+ last season.
Craig Smith has gone from 11 wins to 17 to 22 in his first three years in Salt Lake City. The task to get even more in Year 4 will be immense. The Utes lost Branden Carlson to graduation and Deivon Smith to St. John’s, which is going to be a big hit, as those were two of the 10 best players in the Pac-12 last season.
Now Utah’s in the Big 12. It returns Gabe Madsen, the only player back who was a double-digit scorer last season (13.2 ppg). Lawson Lovering and Hunter Erickson are also key returnees. Stretchy San Francisco guard Mike Sharavjamts is poised to be a difference-maker, and Baylor transfer Miro Little should also be featured in the starting lineup.
The Pirates narrowly missed last year’s NCAAs (then won the NIT) and, even worse, lost Kadary Richmond to Big East rival St. John’s. Shaheen Holloway won 17 games in Year 1 and 25 last season. I think he splits that in ’24-25 and ends up with either 20 or 21 Ws. Dylan Addae-Wusu and Isaiah Coleman return; expect both to become double-digit scorers after combining to average 14 points last season.
Holloway brought on seven transfers, the most notable being an intra-league Big East swap of his own in Garwey Dual (Providence). The implied lack of 3-point prowess is striking. Without enough long-distance threats, it is hard to get the Hall higher on the list than this. That said, while it’s casual to underestimate this team, keep in mind Holloway’s one of the best do-more-with-less coaches in the high-major ranks.
Few folks in the media were as consistently pro-Isaiah Stevens over the past two years as your humble author here. Stevens stuck around in Fort Collins when he easily could have left in 2022 or 2023 and sought bigger NIL paydays. He guided CSU as a point guard with few peers (if any) at his level. Now that his college career is done, the Rams have to hope Northern Iowa transfer Bowen Born can facilitate and guide the ship.
It won’t be easy, but at least Nique Clifford (a multi-tool 6-5 wing) is back. Clifford figures to be a first team-type of All-Mountain West player. He averaged 12.2 points and that number is a stone-cold lock to inflate. Clifford was a down-transfer from Colorado who is a primo example of how moving to a lower level can vastly improve a player’s college experience. Niko Medved also brings back Jalen Lake in a starting role. Probably won’t compete for the Mountain West title but should be good enough to flirt with the bubble.
I was on hand in Manhattan in March for the Tigers’ stunning 90-81 loss in the Ivy League Tournament semifinals to Brown. (Princeton trailed by as many as 22 in that game.) Coach Mitch Henderson was visibly and understandably furious in the aftermath. That aggravation should serve as a motivator, not an inhibitor, for the Tigers in what should be another very good year in Princeton.
Last season’s team was 24-3 before losing its final two games. Crucially, it returns shooting guard Xaivian Lee, who is the most talented player in the Ivy. But he wasn’t the 2024 Ivy POY. That would be Caden Pierce, who is also still wearing black and orange. Those two give the Tigers dependability, leadership and star power. If Henderson enables it, Pierce and Lee could rank among the highest-scoring duos in the country. Both are capable of averaging 20 if they want it.
Russell Turner has built up one of the strongest mid-major résumés in the game. With a 289-180 record in 14 seasons, he’s finished half of his campaigns with the best team in the Big West. That should be the case again in 2024-25 because the Anteaters have four starters sticking around from a 24-win team that finished 82nd at KenPom.
It would come as no shock if this team wound up having a top-50 defense, too. UCI has won on the strength of its bigs in the past, but this group figures to carve its way to another 20-win year based on the depth of its guards. The two starters who should pace this group are Justin Hohn and Andre Henry — a duo that should wind up being the best 3-point shooting backcourt in the Big West.
Few coaches have ever had bigger jumps in success in their first three years of Division I coaching than Josh Schertz. His first season at Indiana State was 11-20. Then he went 23-13 in 2022-23. Last season ISU made the NIT title game and went 32-7.
If not for an unprecedented amount of bid thieves, the Sycamores would have been in the NCAAs. And Schertz might be coaching at Louisville if they had danced. Instead, Saint Louis is the spot, and it feels right. This is a good jump and the type of hire that SLU fans can eagerly embrace. They’ve got a shot to once again have a relevant program in short order. A big reason is because Schertz brought MVC Player of the Year Robbie Avila with him. The lovable baller with too many great nicknames (Cream Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Nerd, Steph Blurry) instantly becomes the must-watch player in the A-10. Isaiah Swope (who sank 114 treys a season ago) also made the move down from Indiana State to be a Billiken. Schertz’s avant-garde offense combined with some shrewd roster-building provides instant credibility.
Eric Musselman won 24 games in his first season at Nevada (2015-16) and 20 in his first at Arkansas (2019-20). Neither team made the NCAAs, and it seems more likely than not that will be true of the Trojans in their first year under Muss and in the West Coast-ified Big Ten.
A double-digit transfer load comes aboard, many of them one-year guys in a grad-school year. Led most likely by Desmond Claude (Xavier), it’s unclear just how well this group of ballers from Boise State, UMass, UC San Diego, Michigan, Northern Colorado and beyond will jell. Muss is right at home in SoCal, and if it hits, this has a shot to be the one job he sticks at for the better part of a decade. But it’s hard to see this assembly as a top-half Big Ten outfit.
USATSI
78. Saint Joseph’s
After regularly rating in the top 100 when Phil Martelli was there, SJU finally broke back into that echelon again by finishing 99th at KenPom last season, Billy Lange’s fifth tour.
I think the Hawks can be similarly good, if not even slightly better, due to all-Atlantic 10 guard Erik Reynolds II playing one final season on the hill. Reynolds’ 17.3 points per game led the league, and teaming up alongside returnee Xzayvier Brown (12.7 ppg) will give the Hawks one of the best backcourt tandems in the A-10. Brown is a stud and could compete with Reynolds for A-10 POY honors. Rasheer Fleming is also back, giving SJU three starting players who stuck around and averaged double digits. That’s a luxury few non-high-major programs can claim in 2024.
It’s a reboot in Fort Worth for Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs figure to start four transfers alongside returning center Ernest Udeh Jr. Dixon will also have seven players on the roster yet to play a college game. That’s going to lead to piles of losses in the Big 12. Unavoidable.
I like the addition of Arizona State transfer Frankie Collins, who will be the head of the snake. He’ll be flanked by Noah Reynolds (via Green Bay) and Brendan Wenzel (via Wyoming). TCU is coming off its third straight NCAA appearance, which had never happened in program history. A step or two back in ’24-25 is almost certainly coming, but that’s no indictment on Dixon’s track record.
80. Northern Iowa
Ben Jacobson has been ping-ponging between good and bad seasons for almost a decade. Here’s UNI’s win totals, starting in 2016 and up through last season: 23, 14, 16, 16, 25, 10, 20, 14, 19. The Panthers haven’t won at least 19 games in back-to-back seasons since their two most recent NCAA Tournament showings in 2015/16. While Bradley is clearly the preseason No. 1 in the MVC, Northern Iowa is a fair pick to finish second — and have its best two-year push since 2016. Well-rounded power wing Tytan Anderson and 6-4 point guard Trey Campbell will guide the way in Cedar Falls.
A bizarrely god-awful season (from 25-10 in Dennis Gates’ first year to 8-24 last season, including going 0-19 in the SEC) meant Mizzou was one of the most shocking bad teams in the country. There are reasons for belief in a healthy turnaround, though.
The Tigers figure to play seven guys in the primary rotation who are juniors, seniors or fifth-year players. Wing Tamar Bates (13.5 ppg) returns alongside Caleb Grill, who only played nine games due to injury but should become a double-digit scorer. Duke transfer power forward Mark Mitchell was a crucial portal pickup, as was Iowa‘s Tony Perkins on the wing. The Tigers will be better built to withstand the rigors of the SEC banked on a vastly improved defense. Gates is too good of a coach to have a terrible team in back-to-back seasons.
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82. Iowa
Fran McCaffery has a good shot at coaching another First Team All-Big Ten player. Payton Sandfort is coming into his fourth season of college ball, having averaged 16.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and shot 37.9% from beyond the arc last season. He’s going to be Iowa’s No. 1 (and likely No. 2) option on offense as the Hawkeyes look to finish top-20 in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) for an eighth straight season.
The defensive concerns are again heavy, which is why I’m predicting a subpar campaign in Iowa City, but if you like the Hawkeyes you should feel great. I don’t think there’s a team I’m more often wrong about heading into a season than Iowa.
83. Louisville
Louisville fans aren’t looking for a lulu of a season, but they do think Pat Kelsey recruited a roster good enough to go from 12 total wins in two years under Kenny Payne to an NCAA bid in Year 1 of Kelsey. We shall see.
As I said on the Eye on College Basketball Podcast last week, Louisville is among the toughest teams to peg in the ACC. Just an outright rebuild emerging from an awful situation. Working in Kelsey’s favor: His only season below .500 was his first as a head coach in 2012-13 at Winthrop (14-17). The Cards bring on Chucky Hepburn from Wisconsin, Terrence Edwards Jr. from JMU — who was REALLY good — plus Noah Waterman via BYU, a few guys from Charleston and Kasean Pryor from South Florida. I want to see how the pieces coagulate and I want to see if Kelsey can and does play as up-tempo with U of L as he did with Winthrop and Charleston.
James Jones needs four more wins to hit 400 for his career, which should culminate before we get to December. Jones is one of the longest-tenured coaches in Division I; this is his 26th season with the Bulldogs. (It’s to Yale’s benefit, but this guy should have been hired to a bigger job three-to-eight years ago, frankly.)
With Jones still operating in his prime, Yale can be a top-100 team for the fifth time in seven seasons. With Princeton the practical pick to win the Ivy, Yale is the evident No. 2 — and may well win the league’s automatic bid again in the intimate and pressurized confines of that league bracket. The Elis lost Danny Wolf to Michigan, otherwise they’d be my preseason pick. Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas (who had 28 vs. Auburn in the tournament) are back to ball in New Haven, Connecticut.
After three consecutive 20-win seasons for a program that’s produced a couple of top-20 NBA picks (Jalen Williams, Brandin Podziemski) as of late, let’s toss them into the 100 And 1. Herb Sendek has a really good staff and didn’t lose anyone to the portal (less than 10 teams did in all of college hoops) and should have nine guys playing double-digit minutes, which is why I’ve got the Broncos positioned to finish in the top four of the WCC.
You best believe that Adama-Alpha Bal (a top-10 name in the sport) is ready for his senior year close-up. He’ll team up with Johnny O’Neil, who is a jack-of-all-trades type … at 6-10. The top four of the WCC looks good again. It’s a shame that the league is losing Gonzaga in two years, but that will help programs like Santa Clara break through after the breakup.
Alan Huss had one of the best debut coaching seasons Division I has seen — regardless of conference designation — in recent memory. He took over the Panthers last season and transformed a school that averaged 13 wins over the previous seven seasons into a 27-9 inaugural campaign.
Unfortunately for High Point, it got picked off in the Big South Tournament against Longwood, losing a heartbreaker by one in OT. Now Huss gets four starters back, including potential Big South POY Kezza Giffa and second-year defensive standout Juslin Bodo Bodo.
The Gamecocks lost three of their top four scorers, who accounted for nearly 38 points per game, but do bring back one of the best sophomores in the country. Collin Murray-Boyles may sound like the name of the second-best striker for Ireland’s World Cup team, but no. He’s a 6-7 forward who has a great opportunity to step into the spotlight and be one of the five best players in the SEC.
The lack of proven pieces around Murray-Boyles has me hesitant overall on the Gamecocks, who were one of the surprises of 2023-24 after winning 26 games and earning a No. 6 seed despite being picked dead last in the then-14-team SEC.
The Hokies — and a few teams like them — will be interesting test cases for predictive metrics in this new phase of 16- and 18-team megaconferences. If a team like this goes 18-16 and finishes four games below .500 in league play, will it still work its way into the top 75?
Glancing at VT’s roster, you can make a case for not including this team in the top 101. But I will because Mike Young’s a really good coach and should squeeze a lot out of his roster. Young is 92-66 in five seasons in Blacksburg, holding a 50-52 mark against ACC opponents. Virginia Tech brings aboard Charleston‘s Ben Burnham and Temple‘s Hysier Miller as its biggest stat guys in the portal. The attrition is huge; no ACC team that didn’t undergo a coaching change lost a bigger dose of its roster than the Hokies.
This one’s admittedly a hunch based on little evidence. But guess what? Teams make huge jumps from well outside the top 100 every year. It’s part of the fun of watching the season unfold. We’ve got two years until the Pac-12 revives. During its interregnum, Oregon State (and Washington State) are taking up residency in the WCC. I think the move will do wonders for Wayne Tinkle’s program.
Plus, the Beavers are loaded with guys between 6-7 and 7 feet. As Dan Patrick once said: Welcome to the Big Show. Can’t wait to see how this roster-building approach fares in a mid-major league. The WCC schedule is now 18 games, with a home-and-home against Gonzaga guaranteed. Get this: Oregon State is 25-2 vs. Gonzaga, and 11-0 since Gonzaga went Division I in the early 1960s. The teams last met in 1991!
Putting faith in a remarkable second-year spike for Georgetown under Ed Cooley. No. 90 doesn’t get you anywhere near the NCAA tourney convo obviously, but I’ll take a flier on Georgetown hitting 15 wins, upgrading its defense and beating at least three non-DePaul teams in the Big East.
Malik Mack could be the star. The Harvard transfer is likely to be a high-volume producer alongside junior guard Jayden Epps. The addition of TCU forward Micah Peavy should provide G’town a necessary older-guy presence on a team that’s got a lot of freshmen.
What a story. Bucky McMillan, who grew up four miles from Samford and has lived his whole life in Birmingham, Alabama, took his BuckyBall style to its maximum potential (seemingly) by going from six wins in Year 1 to 29 and an NCAA Tournament berth in Year 4. Samford was 81st at KenPom last season after falling to Kansas in controversial fashion in the first round of the Big Dance.
McMillan lost four starters, but I’d bank on this team being able to average north of 77 or 78 points (last year: 81.4) because of the style of play. Rylan Jones is the lone returning starter on a team that’s projected to be the best in the SoCon. A lot of players are going to have an increase in minutes and impact. McMillan’s press-for-40-minutes-no-matter-what blueprint is the only one of its kind in college basketball.
Here are the teams outside the high-major leagues with the most wins over the last eight seasons: Gonzaga (121), Belmont (120) and Vermont (115). John Becker has made the NCAAs six times; 2025 feels like it will be No. 7 in Burlington. Related: UVM has ranked top-100 at KenPom six times in Becker’s tenure; 2025 feels like it will be No. 7 in Burlington.
Becker should be taking calls from dozens of coaches across the country so they can learn his secret for avoiding invariable pitfalls that affect most other mid-majors. Four starters are back from a No. 13 seed that went 28-7. Shamir Bogues seems to be the next big name in the Green Mountain State, but beyond individual play, Becker believes this team could be one of his best on defense.
The Tigers have a chance to be the surprise mid-major team in the sport. Pat Skerry’s team lost just two hoopers from last year’s lineup that won 20 games (and they were to graduation and a down-transfer to D-II). In total, 10 out of 11 possible returnees are back.
Understand: This kind of retention scenario will present itself maybe two or three times at the non-military mid-major level moving forward. A really good story is brewing here. Four players returned who averaged double figures, led by Christian May and Dylan Williamson. In total, 81% of the team’s scoring returns and Skerry probably will go 10-deep well into league play. To me, the narrow favorites over Charleston in a competitive top end of the CAA.
I dithered between FAU or UNT as the last team from the American in the back of the Top 100 And 1. I’ll lean Mean Green due to not having a coaching change and the program ranking top-90 in multiple metrics four years running. Due to losing four starters, the Mean Green probably take a step back, but Ross Hodge’s defensive scheme is going to ensure this team is second tier at worst in the AAC.
Hodge is a top-10 (maybe top-five) defensive coach in the country. But without a threatening scorer, things get problematic. I think the name to watch is Atin Wright, a transfer from Drake who can shoot from deep and is going to be North Texas’ spreader on offense. It’s easy to overlook a team that wins by committee the way UNT has in recent years, but until I see results that justify putting this program outside the top 101, I won’t do it.
The Nittany Lions have five seniors back. Ace Baldwin is probably going to destroy opposing guards’ spirits with almost every assignment he gets. That guy is worth the price of admission.
No, PSU doesn’t have great basketball history, but Mike Rhoades’ track record (389-206 in his career, including a decade in D-III) suggests this team is being underrated heading into the season. Again, the Big Ten is such a foggy set of circumstances, but something tells me Rhoades’ team will play spoiler on multiple nights this season.
Over the past 20 years, with only a few exceptions, the MVC has placed at least three teams in the top 100 of a variety of metrics by season’s end. I think 2025 will sustain the pattern. I’ve got Bradley in the top 50, Northern Iowa 16 spots north of this, and now we welcome the Murray State Racers back into the top-100 club.
The team is one of my picks for one of the biggest turnarounds in the sport. Steve Prohm’s program won only 12 games last season. So, why so much faith? Eight juniors and seniors will take up the entirety of the rotation, with a reasonable expectation that this will be a top-two defense in the Valley. At the 1 is JaCobi Wood, who won’t exactly be Ja Morant, but I think he’s poised to be one of only a handful of guys in D-I to average 15/5/5. If it all comes together, he could do that and creep up on 40% shooting from 3-point range.
It would be easy to dismiss OSU after a lackluster run at the end of Mike Boynton’s tenure, a subsequent coaching hire and inevitable massive roster flip. But the new coach is Steve Lutz, who has made the past three NCAA tourneys while at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Western Kentucky. He’s a really good coach and previously worked under Matt Painter at Purdue and Greg McDermott at Creighton.
Most importantly, Lutz wound up recruiting one of the oldest rosters in high-major ball, which I expect to translate to a solid Year 1. The familiar name is Bryce Thompson, who opted to stick it out in Stillwater after Boynton’s departure. The new name is Devo Davis, who can be hit-or-miss but needs to hit big to give the Cowboys a spoiler’s chance in the 16-team Big 12.
The Buffaloes are losing a lot. The most talented team in program history, essentially. Gone: Tristan da Silva, KJ Simpson, Cody Williams, all NBA picks, two of them first rounders. And Eddie Lampkin Jr. is gone as well. Tad Boyle’s had some really good years with lowered expectations. Let’s see if he can pull off another one here, because it looks to be a tough slog ahead as Colorado transitions into the Big 12.
It’s anyone’s guess as to who steps up in a starring role, but the candidates are Washington State transfer Andrej Jakimovski and top returning reserve Julian Hammond III. On a side note, I’m not sure there’s a greater personality disparity in coaches at the high-major level than Deion Sanders and Tad Boyle.
99. UMass
Frank Martin won 15 games in Year 1, 20 last season, so why not sign up for the Minutemen to be near the top of the A-10? It’s an ambitious forecast, but Martin’s force of will tends to have his rosters outperform expectations.
Simply put, there will be 10-15 teams that easily rank top-100 come March but that can’t be found inside the preseason top 100 at any predictive metrics site today. I’ll go with UMass as one of those teams. Shooting guard Rahsool Diggins is back; expect him to drop 15 points per night. Sophomore point guard Jaylen Curry should shine. This is UMass’ final season in the A-10, by the way. The school idiotically voted to leave and chase ill-fated football dreams in the MAC starting in 2025, a decision that’s alienated a heavy portion of the school’s alumni base.
It’s fair to say Bobby Hurley is in a hot-seat season, due to the new-look Big 12 and the fact ASU has finished sub-.500 in three of the past four years. If 2025 doesn’t include an NCAA bid, change could be in the offing. And so, in comes the highest-rated frosh class of Hurley’s career.
One of the surprise roster additions of the offseason was ASU landing five-star Jayden Quaintance, who could help prove this ranking too dismissive. Best of all, due to his age, he’s not eligible to be drafted until 2026. It’s not just Quaintance; ASU also got a football-style flip in Joson Sanon, who balked on his commitment to Arizona and took to Tempe. I’ve got the Sun Devils low, however, because relying on freshmen and portal adds from the mid-major ranks (Missouri State‘s Alston Mason and Milwaukee‘s BJ Freeman are expected to be prominently featured) could be a challenging playbook in the best league in the country.
The Cornhuskers are coming off only their second NCAA Tournament bid since 1998. This was a sweet story last season, but the bounce-back could be difficult. Keisei Tominaga’s off conquering the world these days; the sport will miss him so. Critically, Rienk Mast is out for the season because of a knee injury.
That lowers NU’s ceiling due to Mast’s vastly underrated skillset. Look for returnees Brice Williams and Juwan Gary to be high-leverage, positionless-type players, though maximizing their success could be attached to Utah transfer point guard Rollie Worster, who missed much of last season to injury.
So there’s your widespread preview. Want more hoops previews? We’ve got a lot in stock already. To start, head here for our preseason All-America teams and our preseason awards. If you want even more detailed previews of the high-major conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and the SEC) and a best-of-the-rest lookahead outside the power leagues.
