WNBA: Can the Dream make the playoffs for the second-straight season?

All the tangible progress and intangible positivity the Atlanta Dream (11-21) achieved with their three-game winning streak out of the Olympic break soon was negated by a four-game losing streak. On Sunday, Sept. 1, the Dream snapped that skid with a 80-62 victory over the Sparks in Los Angeles.

The single win, remarkably, strengthened their playoff chances. The struggles of the Chicago Sky—1-7 since play resumed—have Atlanta tied in the standings with Chicago for the eighth seed with eight games to play. (The Sky, however, currently own the tiebreaker.) For their second-to-last game of the season on Tuesday, Sept. 17, the Dream will host the Sky, a contest that could potentially determine which team claims the final spot in the playoffs. (At two games back of Chicago and Atlanta, the Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings also could enter the eighth-seed conversation).

To make sure their playoff hopes aren’t extinguished, and maybe even have improved, by that date with Chicago, Atlanta should aim for a .500 record over the intervening six games. Those games are:

Tuesday, Sept. 3: at Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET, League Pass)

Friday, Sept. 6: vs. Dallas Wings (7:30 p.m. ET, ION)

Sunday, Sept. 8: at Indiana Fever (4 p.m. ET, ESPN3/League Pass)

Tuesday, Sept. 10: vs. Minnesota Lynx (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass)

Friday, Sept. 13: vs. Washington Mystics (7:30 p.m. ET, ION)

Sunday, Sept. 15: at Washington Mystics (3 p.m. ET, League Pass)

It’s an uninspiring, yet realistic, ambition for a team’s that brand, unfortunately, has become underachievement and inconsistency. So, what needs to happen for Atlanta meet or exceed this expectation?

A Rhyne Howard hot streak

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Players playing better is an ostensibly easy solution for any team. But when it comes to Rhyne Howard, the “play better” adjustment is not a far-fetched fantasy.

The two-time All-Star and 3×3 bronze medalist is having the least productive season of her WNBA career. Howard’s scoring, shooting percentage, rebounding and assists all are down; that’s not what is expected of a third-year player who is envisioned as a rising superstar. Yet, Howard has encountered a conundrum much of this season that helps explain her uneven offensive production.

Her appeal as a high-ceiling player comes from the versatility and fluidity of her 3-point stroke, something she willing seeks to weaponize by taking the majority of her shots from behind the arc. Quite possibly, she’s too quick to hoist a 3-pointer, with her volume of tough 3s contributing her 33.1 conversion rate from deep in the 2024 season, the lowest 3-point percentage of her career. A silky-smooth 6-foot-2 athlete with the handle required to navigate tight spaces, Howard should work her way to the basket more often. But, her 2-point attempts and points in the paint are down. On the other hand, Atlanta’s overall outside shooting deficit demands that Howard create offensive spacing by liberally firing away from behind the arc. The team’s lack of sufficient spacing also makes more difficult her forays inside the arc. Howard is Atlanta’s most talented offensive player, but the team’s offensive environment fails to optimize her skills.

That talent, however, can paper over all these issues. Because when Howard’s 3-ball is falling, she looks like a future face of the league, scoring with enviable ease. While a hot shooting streak from Howard is not a sustainable solution to Atlanta’s offensive ills, it would be the perfect accelerant for a short-term playoff push. Sunday’s win in LA featured flashes of a Howard scorcher, as she was 5-for-9 from 3 and totaled 19 points. In the eight games since the Olympic break, she’s taking 9.6 triples per game, making a respectable 36.4 percent of them.

The return of Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

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Even prior to her ankle injury, 2024 had been a rough season for Cheyenne Parker-Tyus. A first-time All-Star in 2023, she struggled to find a rhythm, failing to mesh with new frontcourt partner Tina Charles. A move to a sixth player role only incrementally increased her production.

Atlanta, however, needs Parker-Tyus’ presence. Although Lorela Cubaj, the Dream’s lone reserve big in Parker-Tyus’ absence, plays with great effort, she lacks the offensive refinement Parker-Tyus offers, even in a season when Parker-Tyus has not been at her best. Parker-Tyus can be a scoring threat for a Dream reserve corps that, otherwise, includes players with limited offensive games. It is unclear when—or if—she will return from her injury in time to boost the Dream.

If not, the team will have to further burden Tina Charles, a risky proposition. Yes, Charles has been excellent of late. The win over the Sparks was another throwback performance, with a double-double of 23 points and 10 rebounds.

In the seven games she’s played since the Olympic break, Charles is averaging 19.1 points on 53.7 percent shooting, while grabbing 12.4 boards per game. Those marks dwarf her pre-break production. Still, it seems unwise to keep asking the 35-year-old vet to log nearly 33 minutes per night and carry the team through long stretches. And if Atlanta manages to sneak into the playoffs, they’ll need all the league’s No. 2 all-time scorer can give them on the postseason stage. The return of Parker-Tyus can help make that happen.

40 minutes of urgency

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For all the fair frustrations that can be levied about the 2024 Dream, this team cannot be accused of quitting. Although they fall into holes too often, undermined by unfocused stretches, they keep playing, finding a way to be in contention for the win in the fourth quarter.

In the latter stages of games, Atlanta has been at their best, sporting a net rating of 4.1 in second halves in their eight games since the Olympic break. Their first half net rating is -1.8 over that same span; for the season, it is -4.1, compared to an 0.3 season-long second-half net rating. A deficit appears to wake the Dream up, but, as indicated by their 11-21 overall record, they’ve struggled to overcome their slumbering starts.

Surely the opportunity to make the playoffs for a second-straight season will induce start-to-finish urgency? On Sunday, the Dream made things easier for themselves, establishing a 46-30 halftime lead that allowed them to cruise to the nearly 20-point win. Forthcoming opponents will present a tougher challenge than the last-place Sparks, testing Atlanta’s ability to put together a complete game.